{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,8]],"date-time":"2026-05-08T12:09:38Z","timestamp":1778242178907,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. bras. epidemiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>ABSTRACT  Objective: We aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of AIDS case risk (1980\u20132019) and HIV infection risk (2000\u20132019) in Campinas, Brazil.  Methods: We conducted a geospatial case-control study using the Notifiable Diseases Information System data. We included all reported AIDS and HIV cases among individuals aged 13 years or older, excluding pregnant women and death notifications. We geocoded the data using the official cartographic base of the municipality and UTM coordinates (SAD69). We modeled spatial risk using generalized additive models (GAMs), applying the Kelsall and Diggle method with pairs of geographic coordinates as non-parametric predictors. We stratified the results by decade and compared them across periods.  Results: We identified 11,372 AIDS cases (1980\u20132019) and 3,329 HIV cases (2000\u20132019). We observed a persistent pattern of high risk in the central district (Distrito Sede) since the 1980s, with progressive expansion toward peripheral districts (Campo Grande, Ouro Verde, Sousas, and Joaquim Eg\u00eddio). This peripheralization of the epidemic coincided with accelerated urbanization and socio-spatial inequality. The highest incidence rates of HIV and AIDS occurred among adults aged 20 to 39 years, with a notable increase among older adults. The analysis revealed partial overlaps of hotspots and expansion of risk areas.  Conclusion: The spatial distribution of HIV\/AIDS in Campinas is heterogeneous and dynamic, characterized by persistence in central areas and expansion into vulnerable peripheral regions. Georeferencing was a strategic tool to guide territorially sensitive prevention and control actions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/1980-549720260021","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,8]],"date-time":"2026-05-08T11:15:17Z","timestamp":1778238917000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Spatial distribution of HIV\/AIDS risk in Campinas-SP (1980\u20132019): a geospatial analysis by decade"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"29","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9840-0309","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M\u00e1rcio Cristiano de","family":"Melo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculdade de Medicina S\u00e3o Leopoldo Mandic,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5725-4130","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Celso","family":"Stephan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Estadual de Campinas,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0437-1066","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ricardo Carlos","family":"Cordeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Estadual de Campinas,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4027-7835","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Valeria Correia de","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Secretaria Municipal de Sa\u00fade de Campinas,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4457-9897","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Rita","family":"Donalisio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Estadual de Campinas,  Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"530","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"reference":[{"issue":"12","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2355","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2010001200014","article-title":"A epidemia de AIDS no Brasil e as desigualdades regionais e de oferta de servi\u00e7o","volume":"26","author":"Grangeiro A","year":"2010","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"key":"ref2","series-title":"Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade. Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico \u2013 HIV e Aids 2023 [Internet]","year":"2023"},{"key":"ref3","series-title":"Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade. Departamento de Vigil\u00e2ncia, Preven\u00e7\u00e3o e Controle das Infec\u00e7\u00f5es Sexualmente Transmiss\u00edveis. Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico \u2013 HIV\/Aids 2019 [Internet]","year":"2019"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref4","first-page":"05","article-title":"Ref\u00fagio e modalidades de deslocamentos populacionais no s\u00e9culo XXI: tend\u00eancias, conflitos e pol\u00edticas","volume":"34","author":"Zapata GP","year":"2017","journal-title":"Rev bras estud popul"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S07","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2000000700002","article-title":"A dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o da epidemia da AIDS no Brasil, no per\u00edodo de 1987-1996: uma an\u00e1lise espacial","volume":"16","author":"Szwarcwald CL","year":"2000","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"537","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822009000500011","article-title":"A epidemia de aids no Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo: uma aplica\u00e7\u00e3o do modelo espa\u00e7o-temporal bayesiano completo","volume":"42","author":"Prado RR","year":"2009","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1083","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2001000500011","article-title":"Spatial statistical methods in health","volume":"17","author":"Bailey TC","year":"2001","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"812","DOI":"10.1590\/S0034-89102010005000035","article-title":"Express\u00e3o geogr\u00e1fica da epidemia de Aids em Campinas, S\u00e3o Paulo, de 1980 a 2005","volume":"44","author":"Stephan C","year":"2010","journal-title":"Rev Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"key":"ref9","series-title":"Brasil \/ S\u00e3o Paulo \/ Campinas \/ Panorama [Internet]","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref10","series-title":"Coordenadoria de Controle de Doen\u00e7as. Centro de Vigil\u00e2ncia Epidemiol\u00f3gica \"Alexandre Vranjac\". Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico [Internet]","year":"2018"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9876.00128","article-title":"Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach","volume":"47","author":"Kelsall JE","year":"1998","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc C Appl Stat"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3733","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232021269.2.33512019","article-title":"An\u00e1lise espacial como ferramenta de identifica\u00e7\u00e3o de \u00e1reas priorit\u00e1rias de interven\u00e7\u00e3o para preven\u00e7\u00e3o da s\u00edfilis","volume":"26","author":"Ramos RSPS","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ci\u00eanc sa\u00fade coletiva"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/0102-311x00069516","article-title":"AmostraBrasil: um pacote R para amostragem domiciliar em munic\u00edpios brasileiros","volume":"32","author":"Cordeiro R","year":"2016","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"},{"key":"ref14","series-title":"Portaria MS n\u00ba 1.271. Define a Lista Nacional de Notifica\u00e7\u00e3o Compuls\u00f3ria de doen\u00e7as, agravos e eventos de sa\u00fade p\u00fablica","year":"2014"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref15","first-page":"303","article-title":"Distribui\u00e7\u00e3o espacial das notifica\u00e7\u00f5es de aids em mulheres no munic\u00edpio de S\u00e3o Paulo: uma an\u00e1lise sob a \u00f3tica da desigualdade socioespacial","volume":"18","author":"Pellini ACG","year":"2015","journal-title":"Rev Esp Geo"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1590\/S0103-166X2010000300006","article-title":"Vulnerabilidade de adolescentes afrodescencentes e brancos em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao HIV\/Aids","volume":"27","author":"Camargo BV","year":"2010","journal-title":"Estud psicol (Campinas)"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref17","first-page":"511","article-title":"Tuberculosis, HIV, and poverty: temporal trends in Brazil, the Americas, and worldwide","volume":"38","author":"Guimar\u00e3es RM","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Bras Pneumol"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1590\/S0037-86822001000200010","article-title":"AIDS e infec\u00e7\u00e3o pelo HIV no Brasil: uma epidemia multifacetada [AIDS and HIV infection in Brazil: a multifaceted epidemic]","volume":"34","author":"Brito AM","year":"2001","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.5123\/S1679-49742013000100009","article-title":"Perfil epidemiol\u00f3gico dos pacientes com HIV atendidos no sul do Estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil, em 2010","volume":"22","author":"Schuelter-Trevisol F","year":"2013","journal-title":"Epidemiol Serv Saude"},{"key":"ref20","series-title":"Plano Diretor: caracteriza\u00e7\u00e3o urbana [Internet]","first-page":"101","year":"2006"},{"key":"ref21","series-title":"Introdu\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 estat\u00edstica espacial para a sa\u00fade p\u00fablica. Santos SM, Souza WV, organizadores [Internet]","year":"2007"},{"key":"ref22","article-title":"Diagn\u00f3stico sociodemogr\u00e1fico de Campinas","year":"2006","journal-title":"Plano Diretor 2006 [Internet]"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-88392001000100003","article-title":"Metr\u00f3pole e expans\u00e3o urbana: a persist\u00eancia de processos \"insustent\u00e1veis\"","volume":"15","author":"Grostein MD","year":"2001","journal-title":"S\u00e3o Paulo Perspec"},{"key":"ref24","series-title":"Novas metr\u00f3poles paulistas: popula\u00e7\u00e3o, vulnerabilidade e segrega\u00e7\u00e3o","first-page":"275","volume-title":"Campinas metropolitana: transforma\u00e7\u00f5es na estrutura urbana atual e desafios futuros","author":"Caiado M","year":"2006"},{"issue":"65","key":"ref25","first-page":"74","article-title":"Prevenci\u00f3n de infecciones de transmisi\u00f3n sexual entre los j\u00f3venes e importancia de la educaci\u00f3n sanitaria","volume":"21","author":"Melo LD","year":"2022","journal-title":"Enferm. glob"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2423","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232018237.20602016","article-title":"Fatores associados \u00e0s infec\u00e7\u00f5es sexualmente transmiss\u00edveis: inqu\u00e9rito populacional no munic\u00edpio de S\u00e3o Paulo, Brasil","volume":"23","author":"Pinto VM","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cien Saude Colet"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref27","article-title":"Young university students and the knowledge about sexually transmitted infections","volume":"22","author":"Fonte VRF da","year":"2018","journal-title":"Esc Anna Nery"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2683","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232021267.08282021","article-title":"A preven\u00e7\u00e3o das infec\u00e7\u00f5es sexualmente transmiss\u00edveis nos roteiros sexuais de jovens: diferen\u00e7as segundo o g\u00eanero","volume":"26","author":"Spindola T","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ci\u00eanc sa\u00fade coletiva"},{"key":"ref29","series-title":"Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico \u2013 CRT-PE-DST\/AIDS\/CVE [Internet]","year":"2016"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.5123\/S1679-49742016000300003","article-title":"An\u00e1lise espacial e temporal dos casos de aids no Brasil em 1996-2011: \u00e1reas de risco aumentado ao longo do tempo","volume":"25","author":"Sousa AIA","year":"2016","journal-title":"Epidemiol Serv Sa\u00fade"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232020261.08652019","article-title":"Tend\u00eancia da incid\u00eancia de HIV-aids segundo diferentes crit\u00e9rios diagn\u00f3sticos em Campinas-SP, Brasil de 1980 a 2016","volume":"26","author":"Melo MC de","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ci\u00eanc sa\u00fade coletiva"},{"key":"ref32","article-title":"A space-time analysis of mortality in older people living with HIV\/AIDS in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil","volume":"26","author":"Souza KOC","year":"2023","journal-title":"Rev bras epidemiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"895","DOI":"10.1590\/1413-81232022273.00432021","article-title":"An\u00e1lise da tend\u00eancia da mortalidade por HIV\/AIDS segundo caracter\u00edsticas sociodemogr\u00e1ficas no Brasil, 2000 a 2018","volume":"27","author":"Cunha AP","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cien Saude Colet"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref34","article-title":"Tend\u00eancia temporal dos casos de HIV\/aids no estado de Minas Gerais, 2007 a 2016","volume":"29","author":"Castro S de S","year":"2020","journal-title":"Epidemiol Serv Sa\u00fade"}],"container-title":["Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia"],"original-title":["Distribui\u00e7\u00e3o espacial do risco de HIV\/AIDS em Campinas-SP (1980-2019):uma an\u00e1lise geoespacial por d\u00e9cada"],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&pid=S1415-790X2026000101018&tlng=en","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,8]],"date-time":"2026-05-08T11:15:21Z","timestamp":1778238921000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1415-790X2026000101018&tlng=en"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":34,"alternative-id":["S1415-790X2026000101018"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/1980-549720260021","relation":{"is-translation-of":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1590\/1980-549720260021.2","asserted-by":"subject"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1590\/1980-549720260021.2","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1980-5497","1415-790X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1980-5497","type":"electronic"},{"value":"1415-790X","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"article-number":"e260021"}}