{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T14:13:43Z","timestamp":1790777623212,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"EDITORA SCIENTIFIC","issue":"suppl 2","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. Bras. Psiquiatr."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>This article reviews recent findings on predictors of conversion to psychosis among youth deemed at ultra high risk (UHR) based on the presence of subpsychotic-intensity symptoms or genetic risk for psychosis and a recent decline in functioning. Although transition rates differ between studies, the most well powered studies have observed rates of conversion to full psychosis in the 30-40% range over 2-3 years of follow-up. Across studies, severity of subthreshold positive symptoms, poorer social functioning, and genetic risk for schizophrenia appear to be consistent predictors of conversion to psychosis, with algorithms combining these indicators achieving positive predictive power &gt; 80%. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of UHR cases do not convert to psychosis. Recent work indicates that UHR cases who present with lower levels of negative symptoms and higher levels of social functioning are more likely to recover symptomatically and no longer meet criteria for an at-risk mental state. In general, it appears that about 1\/3 of UHR cases convert to psychosis, about 1\/3 do not convert but remain symptomatic and functionally impaired, and about 1\/3 recover symptomatically and functionally. Continued efforts to detect early risk for psychosis are critical for informing early intervention and provide increasing promise of delaying or even preventing the onset of psychosis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/s1516-44462011000600002","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,3]],"date-time":"2017-02-03T18:31:38Z","timestamp":1486146698000},"page":"s129-s142","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":45,"title":["Prediction of conversion to psychosis: review and future directions"],"prefix":"10.47626","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Dylan G.","family":"Gee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of California"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tyrone D.","family":"Cannon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of California"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"27448","reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1016\/S0920-9964(02)00167-6","article-title":"Psychosis prediction: 12-month follow up of a high-risk (\"prodromal\") group","volume":"60","author":"Yung AR","year":"2003","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1001\/archgenpsychiatry.2007.3","article-title":"Prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high risk: a multisite longitudinal study in North America","volume":"65","author":"Cannon TD","year":"2008","journal-title":"Arch Gen Psychiatry","ISSN":"https:\/\/id.crossref.org\/issn\/0003-990X","issn-type":"print"},{"key":"ref3","series-title":"Comprehensive assessment of at risk mental states (CAARMS)","author":"Yung A","year":"2002"},{"key":"ref4","series-title":"Structured clinical interview for prodromal syndromes","author":"McGlashan TH","year":"2001"},{"key":"ref5","series-title":"Bonn scale for the assessment of basic symptoms - BSABS","author":"Gross G","year":"1987"},{"key":"ref6","first-page":"76","article-title":"The schizophrenia prediction instrument -adult version (SPI-A)","volume":"70","author":"Schultze-Lutter F","year":"2004","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1001\/archpsyc.58.2.158","article-title":"Diagnosing schizophrenia in the initial prodromal phase","volume":"58","author":"Klosterkotter J","year":"2001","journal-title":"Arch Gen Psychiatry."},{"issue":"3","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1001\/archgenpsychiatry.2009.206","article-title":"Prediction of psychosis in adolescents and young adults at high risk","volume":"67","author":"Ruhrmann S","year":"2010","journal-title":"Arch Gen Psychiatry."},{"issue":"4","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0447.2005.00697.x","article-title":"Prospective investigations of the prodromal state of schizophrenia: assessment instruments","volume":"113","author":"Olsen KA","year":"2006","journal-title":"Acta Psychiatr Scand."},{"issue":"1-3","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.schres.2008.07.012","article-title":"Validation of \"prodromal\" criteria to detect individuals at ultra high risk of psychosis: 2 year follow-up","volume":"105","author":"Yung AR","year":"2008","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"2-3","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1016\/j.schres.2009.10.001","article-title":"High remission rates from an initial ultra-high risk state for psychosis","volume":"116","author":"Simon AE","year":"2010","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"1-3","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1016\/j.schres.2010.10.022","article-title":"Transition and remission in adolescents at ultra-high risk for psychosis","volume":"126","author":"Ziermans TB","year":"2011","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"2-3","key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/S0920-9964(03)00192-0","article-title":"Risk factors for psychosis in an ultra high-risk group: psychopathology and clinical features","volume":"67","author":"Yung AR","year":"2004","journal-title":"Schizophr Res."},{"issue":"8","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"800","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ajp.2011.10081191","article-title":"At clinical high risk for psychosis: Outcome for nonconverters","volume":"168","author":"Addington J","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am J Psychiatry."},{"key":"ref15","series-title":"Recovery from an at-risk state: Clinical and functional outcomes of putatively prodromal youth who do not develop psychosis","author":"Schlosser DA","year":"2011"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbj007","article-title":"Risk and protection in prodromal schizophrenia: ethical implications for clinical practice and future research","volume":"32","author":"Haroun N","year":"2006","journal-title":"Schizophr Bull."},{"key":"ref17","first-page":"291","article-title":": Cognitive therapy for the prevention of psychosis in people at ultra-high risk","volume":"185","author":"Morrison AP","year":"2004","journal-title":"Randomized controlled trial. Br J Psychiatry."},{"issue":"5","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"863","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ajp.159.5.863","article-title":": Prospective diagnosis of the initial prodrome for schizophrenia based on the Structure Interview for Prodromal Syndromes: Preliminary evidence of interrater reliability and predictive validity","volume":"159","author":"Miller TJ","year":"2002","journal-title":"Am J Psychiatry."},{"issue":"4","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"633","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.schbul.a007036","article-title":"The schizophrenia prodrome revisited: a neurodevelopmental perspective","volume":"29","author":"Cornblatt BA","year":"2003","journal-title":"Schizophr Bull."}],"container-title":["Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/pdf\/rbp\/v33s2\/02.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,6]],"date-time":"2022-06-06T16:11:32Z","timestamp":1654531892000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-44462011000600002&lng=en&tlng=en"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,10]]},"references-count":19,"journal-issue":{"issue":"suppl 2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,10]]}},"alternative-id":["S1516-44462011000600002"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/s1516-44462011000600002","relation":{},"ISSN":["1516-4446"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1516-4446","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,10]]}}}