{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,30]],"date-time":"2025-07-30T15:03:29Z","timestamp":1753887809469,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,1]],"date-time":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672531200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,1]],"date-time":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672531200000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,1]],"date-time":"2023-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672531200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Cad. Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Abstract: After four months of fighting the pandemic, the city of S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil, entered a phase of relaxed social distancing measures in July 2020. Simultaneously, there was a decline in the social distancing rate and a reduction in the number of cases, fatalities, and hospital bed occupancy. To understand the pandemic dynamics in the city of S\u00e3o Paulo, we developed a multi-agent simulation model. Surprisingly, the counter-intuitive results of the model followed the city\u2019s reality. We argue that this phenomenon could be attributed to local bubbles of protection that emerged in the absence of contagion networks. These bubbles reduced the transmission rate of the virus, causing short and temporary reductions in the epidemic curve - but manifested as an unstable equilibrium. Our hypothesis aligns with the virus spread dynamics observed thus far, without the need for ad hoc assumptions regarding the natural thresholds of collective immunity or the heterogeneity of the population\u2019s transmission rate, which may lead to erroneous predictions. Our model was designed to be user-friendly and does not require any scientific or programming expertise to generate outcomes on virus transmission in a given location. Furthermore, as an input to start our simulation model, we developed the COVID-19 Protection Index as an alternative to the Human Development Index, which measures a given territory vulnerability to the coronavirus and includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development, as well as the infrastructure of the city of S\u00e3o Paulo.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/0102-311xen109522","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,15]],"date-time":"2023-12-15T15:27:11Z","timestamp":1702654031000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"39","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2457-2882","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jose Paulo Guedes","family":"Pinto","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Federal do ABC,  Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3641-8110","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Patr\u00edcia Camargo","family":"Magalh\u00e3es","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidad Complutense de Madrid,  Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9657-9675","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gerusa Maria","family":"Figueiredo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo,  Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0800-5872","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Domingos","family":"Alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo,  Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3935-2735","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diana Maritza Segura","family":"Angel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo,  Brazil"}]}],"member":"530","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"reference":[{"series-title":"Coronav\u00edrus - COVID-19.","key":"ref1"},{"series-title":"Ades\u00e3o ao isolamento social em SP.","key":"ref2"},{"series-title":"Boletim completo.","key":"ref3"},{"series-title":"Painel COVID-19 - Munic\u00edpio de S\u00e3o Paulo.","key":"ref4"},{"series-title":"Serial soroepidemiological survey to monitor the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Municipality of S\u00e3o Paulo.","key":"ref5"},{"key":"ref6","article-title":"Imunidade coletiva, bolhas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ou distanciamento? 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interaction layers in complex networks for the dynamical epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil","volume":"564","author":"Scabini LF","year":"2021","journal-title":"Physica A"},{"year":"2020","series-title":"Learning epidemiology by doing: the empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses","author":"Bisin A","key":"ref14"},{"series-title":"MD Corona (modelo de dispers\u00e3o comunit\u00e1ria coronav\u00edrus).","author":"Guedes Pinto JP","key":"ref15"},{"series-title":"NetLogo virus model.","author":"Wilensky U","key":"ref16"},{"series-title":"NetLogo.","author":"Wilensky U","key":"ref17"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a112666","article-title":"Seasonality and the requirements for perpetuation and eradication of viruses in populations","volume":"109","author":"Yorke JA","year":"1979","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref19","first-page":"46","article-title":"Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil","volume":"6","author":"Amaku M","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Model"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"418","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-20687-y","article-title":"Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for S\u00e3o Paulo-Brazil","volume":"12","author":"Pinto Neto O","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-10-190","article-title":"Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling agent-based versus structured metapopulation models","volume":"10","author":"Ajelli M","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2017.02.010","article-title":"Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious 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Brazil","volume":"28","author":"Nakada LY","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Sci Pollut Res Int"},{"year":"2020","series-title":"Report 22: equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low-and lower middle-income countries.","author":"Winskill P","key":"ref53"},{"series-title":"Um bairro, duas curvas: entre Barra do Cear\u00e1 e Meireles.","key":"ref54"},{"series-title":"Um bairro, duas curvas: Copacabana entre o morro e o asfalto.","key":"ref55"}],"container-title":["Cadernos de Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica"],"original-title":["Bolhas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o locais: uma interpreta\u00e7\u00e3o da diminui\u00e7\u00e3o da velocidade de dissemina\u00e7\u00e3o do coronav\u00edrus na cidade de S\u00e3o Paulo, Brasil, em julho de 2020"],"link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&pid=S0102-311X2023001105007&tlng=en","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,15]],"date-time":"2023-12-15T15:27:29Z","timestamp":1702654049000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.scielo.br\/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2023001105007&tlng=en"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"references-count":55,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023]]}},"alternative-id":["S0102-311X2023001105007"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1590\/0102-311xen109522","relation":{},"ISSN":["1678-4464","0102-311X"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1678-4464"},{"type":"print","value":"0102-311X"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"article-number":"e00109522"}}