{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,21]],"date-time":"2026-02-21T04:27:52Z","timestamp":1771648072650,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Acta Amaz."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>ABSTRACT Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the A1B-AR4\/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated by the ETA-INPE\/HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a temperature increase of up to 4.4 \u00b0C, and a wind speed increase of up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The consequences of projected climate change are severe and will probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may have great importance in water retention.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/1809-4392201601993","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,8,8]],"date-time":"2017-08-08T18:47:26Z","timestamp":1502218046000},"page":"213-226","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"47","author":[{"given":"Ricardo","family":"DALAGNOL","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais,  Brazil"}]},{"given":"Laura de Simone","family":"BORMA","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais,  Brazil"}]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"MATEUS","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade de Lisboa,  Portugal"}]},{"given":"Daniel Andres","family":"RODRIGUEZ","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais,  Brazil"}]}],"member":"530","reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1779","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2007.0026","article-title":"Interactions between rainfall, deforestation, and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia","volume":"363","author":"Arag\u00e3o L.E.O.C.","year":"2008","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W04505","DOI":"10.1029\/2010WR009689","article-title":"Downscaling precipitation using regional climate models and circulation patterns toward hydrology","volume":"47","author":"B\u00e1rdossy A.","year":"2011","journal-title":"Water Resources Research"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1787","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2007.0013","article-title":"Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest","volume":"363","author":"Barlow J.","year":"2008","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1080\/02626667909491834","article-title":"A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology","volume":"24","author":"Beven K.J.","year":"1979","journal-title":"Hydrological Sciences Bulletin"},{"key":"ref5","series-title":"Secas na Amaz\u00f4nia: causas e consequ\u00eancias","first-page":"306","volume-title":"Impactos dos extremos de seca e cheia sobre os recursos h\u00eddricos amaz\u00f4nicos e a\u00e7\u00f5es da Defesa Civil","author":"Borma L.S.","year":"2013","edition":"1st ed"},{"key":"ref6","series-title":"HIDROWEB - 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