{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,3]],"date-time":"2026-04-03T23:17:00Z","timestamp":1775258220778,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"FapUNIFESP (SciELO)","issue":"0","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Educ. Pesqui."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Resumo O abandono escolar \u00e9 um problema complexo que afeta a maioria dos programas de gradua\u00e7\u00e3o p\u00f3s-secund\u00e1ria, em todo o mundo. O curso de engenharia industrial do Instituto ISVOUGA, localizado em Santa Maria da Feira, Portugal, n\u00e3o \u00e9 exce\u00e7\u00e3o. Este estudo usou um conjunto de dados contendo informa\u00e7\u00f5es gerais dos estudantes e suas notas para as unidades curriculares j\u00e1 avaliadas. A partir deste conjunto de dados, foram selecionados dezessete preditores potenciais: cinco intr\u00ednsecos (g\u00eanero, estado civil, situa\u00e7\u00e3o profissional, idade e regime de dedica\u00e7\u00e3o aos estudos \u2013 integral ou parcial) e doze extr\u00ednsecos (as notas em todas as doze unidades curriculares ministradas durante os dois primeiros semestres do curso). O objetivo principal desta investiga\u00e7\u00e3o foi prever a probabilidade de um estudante abandonar o curso com base nos referidos preditores. Foi usada uma regress\u00e3o log\u00edstica bin\u00e1ria para classificar os estudantes como tendo uma probabilidade alta ou baixa de n\u00e3o se reinscreverem no curso. Para validar se a metodologia utilizada \u00e9 apropriada para o estudo em causa, a precis\u00e3o obtida com o modelo de regress\u00e3o log\u00edstica foi comparada, por via de uma valida\u00e7\u00e3o cruzada com cinco parti\u00e7\u00f5es, com a precis\u00e3o obtida pela utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de tr\u00eas m\u00e9todos muito utilizados em data mining: One R, K Nearest Neighbors e Naive Bayes. O modelo de regress\u00e3o log\u00edstica identificou quatro vari\u00e1veis significativas na previs\u00e3o do abandono escolar (as classifica\u00e7\u00f5es nas unidades curriculares de ci\u00eancia dos materiais, eletricidade, c\u00e1lculo 1 e qu\u00edmica). Os dois preditores mais influentes do abandono dos estudantes s\u00e3o n\u00e3o conseguir aprova\u00e7\u00e3o nas unidades curriculares menos exigentes: ci\u00eancia dos materiais e eletricidade. Ao contr\u00e1rio do que seria de supor antes desta investiga\u00e7\u00e3o, descobrimos que a n\u00e3o aprova\u00e7\u00e3o em unidades curriculares mais exigentes, como f\u00edsica ou estat\u00edstica, n\u00e3o tem influ\u00eancia significativa no abandono escolar.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1590\/s1678-4634201844180590","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,27]],"date-time":"2018-10-27T14:20:59Z","timestamp":1540650059000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o do sucesso acad\u00eamico para prever o abandono escolar de estudantes do ensino superior: um caso de estudo"],"prefix":"10.1590","volume":"44","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6493-6161","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ant\u00f3nio Carlos Corte-Real de","family":"Sousa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade do Porto,  Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9505-8170","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlos Alberto Bragan\u00e7a de","family":"Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade do Porto,  Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9946-5614","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Lu\u00eds Cabral Moura","family":"Borges","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade do Porto,  Portugal"}]}],"member":"530","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"563","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compedu.2009.03.013","article-title":"Factors influencing university drop out rates","volume":"53","author":"ARAQUE Francisco","year":"2009","journal-title":"Computers and Education"},{"key":"ref2","series-title":"Academic Ranking of World Universities 2016"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref3","first-page":"518","article-title":"Student involvement: a developmental theory for higher education","volume":"40","author":"ASTIN Alexander","year":"1984","journal-title":"Journal of College Student Development"},{"key":"ref4","series-title":"What matters in college: four critical years revisited","author":"ASTIN Alexander","year":"1993"},{"key":"ref5","series-title":"A framework for qualifications of the European higher education area","year":"2005"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.1967.1053964","article-title":"Nearest neighbor pattern classification","volume":"13","author":"COVER Thomas","year":"1967","journal-title":"Information Theory"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"621","DOI":"10.2165\/00002018-200730070-00010","article-title":"Principles of data mining","volume":"30","author":"HAND David J","year":"2007","journal-title":"Drug Safety"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1080\/03323315.2011.569143","article-title":"Do structured study programmes lead to lower rates of dropout and student transfer from university?","volume":"30","author":"HOVDHAUGEN Elisabeth","year":"2011","journal-title":"Irish Educational Studies"},{"key":"ref9","series-title":"Censos 2011 norte","volume":"60","year":"2011"},{"key":"ref10","series-title":"Portal do Instituto Nacional de Estat\u00edstica","year":"2016"},{"key":"ref11","series-title":"Exploring the complexity of early dropout causal structures","author":"JORDAN Will J.","year":"1994"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1080\/00091380309604090","article-title":"What we\u2019re learning about student engagement from NSSE: benchmarks for effective educational practices. 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