{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,12]],"date-time":"2025-11-12T06:25:07Z","timestamp":1762928707314},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI)","issue":"01","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,17]],"date-time":"2019-07-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1563321600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.aaai.org"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["AAAI"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We propose a probabilistic model for estimating population flow, which is defined as populations of the transition between areas over time, given aggregated spatio-temporal population data. Since there is no information about individual trajectories in the aggregated data, it is not straightforward to estimate population flow. With the proposed method, we utilize a collective graphical model with which we can learn individual transition models from the aggregated data by analytically marginalizing the individual locations. Learning a spatio-temporal collective graphical model only from the aggregated data is an ill-posed problem since the number of parameters to be estimated exceeds the number of observations. The proposed method reduces the effective number of parameters by modeling the transition probabilities with a neural network that takes the locations of the origin and the destination areas and the time of day as inputs. By this modeling, we can automatically learn nonlinear spatio-temporal relationships flexibly among transitions, locations, and times. With four real-world population data sets in Japan and China, we demonstrate that the proposed method can estimate the transition population more accurately than existing methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1609\/aaai.v33i01.33013935","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,9,4]],"date-time":"2019-09-04T07:34:28Z","timestamp":1567582468000},"page":"3935-3942","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Neural Collective Graphical Models for Estimating Spatio-Temporal Population Flow from Aggregated Data"],"prefix":"10.1609","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Tomoharu","family":"Iwata","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hitoshi","family":"Shimizu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"9382","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,17]]},"container-title":["Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/ojs.aaai.org\/index.php\/AAAI\/article\/download\/4283\/4161","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/ojs.aaai.org\/index.php\/AAAI\/article\/download\/4283\/4161","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,7]],"date-time":"2022-11-07T06:53:51Z","timestamp":1667804031000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ojs.aaai.org\/index.php\/AAAI\/article\/view\/4283"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,17]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"01","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,23]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1609\/aaai.v33i01.33013935","relation":{},"ISSN":["2374-3468","2159-5399"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2374-3468","type":"electronic"},{"value":"2159-5399","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,17]]}}}