{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T13:48:27Z","timestamp":1791208107367,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,7,1]],"date-time":"2013-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1372636800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ecology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The spatial distribution of prairie dog (<jats:italic>Cynomys ludovicianus<\/jats:italic>) colonies in North America has changed from large, contiguous populations to small, isolated colonies in metapopulations. One factor responsible for this drastic change in prairie\u2010dog population structure is plague (caused by the bacterium<jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>). We fit stochastic patch occupancy models to 20 years of prairie\u2010dog colony occupancy data from two discrete metapopulations (west and east) in the Pawnee National Grassland in Colorado, USA, that differ in connectivity among suitable habitat patches. We conducted model selection between two hypothesized modes of plague movement: independent of prairie\u2010dog dispersal (colony\u2010area) vs. plague movement consistent with prairie\u2010dog dispersal (connectivity to extinct colonies). The best model, which fit the data well (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.94 west area; 0.79 east area), revealed that over time the proportion of extant colonies was better explained by colony size than by connectivity to extinct (plagued) colonies. The idea that prairie dogs are not likely to be the main vector that spreads<jats:italic>Y. pestis<\/jats:italic>across the landscape is supported by the observation that colony extinctions are primarily caused by plague, prairie\u2010dog dispersal is short range, and connectivity to extinct colonies was not selected as a factor in the models. We also conducted simulations with the best model to examine long\u2010term patterns of colony occupancy and persistence of prairie\u2010dog metapopulations. In the case where the metapopulations persist, our model predicted that the western metapopulation would have a colony occupancy rate approximately 2.5 times higher than that of the eastern metapopulation (\u223c50% occupied colonies vs. 20%) in 50 years, but that the western metapopulation has \u223c80% chance of extinction in 100 years while the eastern metapopulation has a less than 25% chance. Extinction probability of individual colonies depended on the frequency with which colonies of the same size class occurred in the metapopulation. Thus, the long\u2010term persistence of prairie\u2010dog metapopulations depended on specific details of the metapopulation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1890\/12-0719.1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,7,11]],"date-time":"2013-07-11T19:59:55Z","timestamp":1373572795000},"page":"1572-1583","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":28,"title":["Persistence of black\u2010tailed prairie\u2010dog populations affected by plague in northern Colorado, USA"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"94","author":[{"given":"Dylan B.","family":"George","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colleen T.","family":"Webb","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kim M.","family":"Pepin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lisa T.","family":"Savage","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael F.","family":"Antolin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","first-page":"104","article-title":"The influences of sylvatic plague on North American wildlife at the landscape level, with special emphasis on black-footed ferret and prairie dog conservation","volume":"67","author":"Antolin M","year":"2002","journal-title":"Transactions of North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-005-5220-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","first-page":"28","article-title":"A review of plague and its relevance to prairie dog populations and the black-footed ferret","author":"Barnes A","year":"1993","journal-title":"Proceedings of the symposium on the management of prairie dog complexes for the reintroduction of black-footed ferret. 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