{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T18:55:15Z","timestamp":1790794515671,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The expanding pool of primary hip and knee arthroplasty implants in situ will generate a growing burden of revision arthroplasty. Projections for several individual countries have been published, but heterogeneous methods and time horizons prevent direct aggregation. We used a uniform method to estimate annual revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA) and revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA) volumes through 2060 for 17 registry-equipped countries.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Annual rTHA and rTKA counts were extracted from each country\u2019s most recent register annual report or registry-based publications. Adult (\u226525 years) population denominators were taken from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant. For each country and procedure, we fitted a log-linear Poisson generalized linear model with the year as a covariate and ln(population) as an offset; each fitted trend was partially pooled across countries, bounded at \u00b12.0% per year, and damped over the projection horizon. Three sensitivity analyses (demographic-only, half-trend Poisson, logistic saturation) were also performed to bracket modeling uncertainty.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In 2024, the modeled 17-country aggregate was 185,921 rTHA and 189,689 rTKA procedures. Under the primary capped Poisson model, the 2060 aggregate reached 243,404 rTHAs and 267,456 rTKAs, corresponding to increases of 31% and 41%, respectively, relative to 2024. Country-level volume trajectories were heterogeneous: the United States and People\u2019s Republic of China drove most absolute growth, while Germany, the United Kingdom, and Sweden approached plateaus by mid-century and Japan was projected to have a decline. The 4 projection methods spanned 2060 combined volumes of \u2053461,000 (demographic-only) to \u2053511,000 (primary model) procedures.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Across 17 countries that perform most of the world\u2019s hip and knee arthroplasties, annual revision volumes are projected to grow by approximately one-third (36% in aggregate; 31% for rTHA and 41% for rTKA) by 2060 under the primary model. The United States and China account for the largest absolute growth; mature European systems flatten, and Japan declines. These projections have direct implications for revision-fellowship pipelines, perioperative infection-prevention programs, and registry infrastructure.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Level of Evidence:<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Prognostic\n                      <jats:underline>Level IV<\/jats:underline>\n                      . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.2106\/jbjs.26.00772","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T18:00:36Z","timestamp":1790791236000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Global Projection of Revision Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Through 2060"],"prefix":"10.2106","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-0385-3940","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jakob","family":"Adolf","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Specialized Orthopaedic University Hospital \u201cProf. B. Boychev,\u201d Medical University Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4250-0444","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Taner","family":"Karl\u0131da\u011f","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthopaedic Surgery and Traumatology, Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara, T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3207-7101","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mustafa","family":"Citak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Knappschaft Kliniken Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"bib1-20260930","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"780","DOI":"10.2106\/00004623-200704000-00012","article-title":"Projections of primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030","volume":"89","author":"Kurtz","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Bone Joint Surg Am."},{"issue":"6S","key":"bib2-20260930","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.arth.2020.02.030","article-title":"Projections and Epidemiology of Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States to 2030","volume":"35","author":"Schwartz","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Arthroplasty."},{"key":"bib3-20260930","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101152","DOI":"10.1016\/j.artd.2023.101152","article-title":"Projections and Epidemiology of Revision Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in the United States to 2040-2060","volume":"21","author":"Shichman","year":"2023","journal-title":"Arthroplast Today."},{"issue":"1","key":"bib4-20260930","first-page":"e22.00112","article-title":"Projections and Epidemiology of Primary Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in Medicare Patients to 2040-2060","volume":"8","author":"Shichman","year":"2023","journal-title":"JB JS Open Access."},{"issue":"5","key":"bib5-20260930","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2663","DOI":"10.1007\/s00590-024-03953-3","article-title":"Projected volume of primary total joint arthroplasty in the USA from 2019 to 2060","volume":"34","author":"Dubin","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur J Orthop Surg Traumatol."},{"issue":"11","key":"bib6-20260930","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1797","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joca.2017.07.022","article-title":"Projected increase in total knee arthroplasty in the United States - 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