{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T00:46:07Z","timestamp":1782434767578,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica","issue":"3 (may-jun)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]],"date-time":"2026-06-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781740800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Salud Publica Mex"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Objetivo. Desarrollar un modelo de pron\u00f3stico base para los casos de dengue. Material y m\u00e9todos. Se analiz\u00f3 una serie temporal de 2000-2024, utilizando datos de fuentes oficiales y se evalu\u00f3 el rendimiento predictivo con modelos autorregresivos integrados de promedio m\u00f3vil estacional (SARIMA). Resultados. Se identificaron patrones estacionales cr\u00edticos con picos de incidencia en los \u00faltimos meses del a\u00f1o. El modelo SARIMA base seleccionado explic\u00f3 75% de la variaci\u00f3n observada. Las proyecciones para 2025-2027 predicen una alta incidencia continua. Notablemente, la inclusi\u00f3n de variables clim\u00e1ticas ex\u00f3genas, precipitaci\u00f3n y temperatura no mejor\u00f3 significativamente el poder predictivo del modelo. Conclusi\u00f3n. El estudio concluye que el dengue se ha consolidado como una enfermedad end\u00e9mica en la regi\u00f3n. El modelo base propuesto es una herramienta para continuar fortaleciendo las intervenciones sanitarias proactivas.\n\u00a0<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.21149\/17666","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T23:49:09Z","timestamp":1782431349000},"page":"205-213","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modelo base de pron\u00f3sticos del dengue para el estado de Jalisco, M\u00e9xico"],"prefix":"10.21149","volume":"68","author":[{"given":"Carlos Ignacio","family":"Garc\u00eda-Jim\u00e9nez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Guadalupe","family":"Mac\u00edas-Barrag\u00e1n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gerardo de Jes\u00fas","family":"Nu\u00f1o-Gradilla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mayrolin","family":"Garc\u00eda-Morales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"8786","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]]},"container-title":["Salud P\u00fablica de M\u00e9xico"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/saludpublica.mx\/index.php\/spm\/article\/download\/17666\/12814","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/saludpublica.mx\/index.php\/spm\/article\/download\/17666\/12814","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]],"date-time":"2026-06-25T23:49:11Z","timestamp":1782431351000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/saludpublica.mx\/index.php\/spm\/article\/view\/17666"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3 (may-jun)","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21149\/17666","relation":{},"ISSN":["1606-7916","0036-3634"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1606-7916","type":"electronic"},{"value":"0036-3634","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]]}}}