{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"Research Square"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]],"date-time":"2026-07-06T06:16:48Z","timestamp":1783318608319,"version":"3.54.6"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]]},"group-title":"In Review","reference-count":16,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]],"date-time":"2026-07-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783296000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,25]]},"abstract":"<title>Abstract<\/title>\n                <p>\n                  This paper examines cross-venue price discovery between Binance and Hyperliquid BTC perpetual futures, asking whether informed on-chain order flow follows the dominant centralised venue or anticipates subsequent price movement on it. The study aligns Binance and Hyperliquid order-book data by venue event time over 25 May 2026 to 22 June 2026, combining lead-lag cross-correlations, Hasbrouck information-share estimates, wallet-level signed markouts, and split-sample persistence tests. Hyperliquid wallet addresses allow repeated trader-level behaviour to be observed, while Binance mid-prices provide the centralised-exchange reference series. At the venue level, Binance leads Hyperliquid in every price-discovery window, and the informed Hyperliquid cohort also follows Binance on average: signed Binance price movement before cohort trades exceeds movement after cohort trades at 2, 5 and 10 second horizons. However, the aggregate average conceals substantial wallet heterogeneity. A minority of wallets show an anticipatory signature, and split-sample tests indicate that this leadership is persistent out of sample, with the strongest half-1 lead-score quintile remaining the only quintile with positive half-2 lead across all tested horizons. The paper therefore shifts the empirical object from venue-level price discovery to wallet-level cross-venue informed flow, showing that a venue can be a follower on average while still hosting a persistent minority of wallets whose trades precede movement on the dominant venue.\n                  <bold>JEL classification:<\/bold>\n                  G14; G15; G12; C58\n                <\/p>","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-10147582\/v1","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]],"date-time":"2026-07-06T06:02:51Z","timestamp":1783317771000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Binance Leads, but Some Wallets Anticipate: Wallet-Level Cross-Venue Informed Flow in BTC Perpetual Futures"],"prefix":"10.21203","author":[{"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1002\/fut.22050","article-title":"BitMEX Bitcoin derivatives: price discovery, informational efficiency, and hedging effectiveness","volume":"40","author":"Alexander C","year":"2020","unstructured":"Alexander, C., Choi, J., Park, H., Sohn, S.: BitMEX Bitcoin derivatives: price discovery, informational efficiency, and hedging effectiveness. J. Futur. Mark. 40(1), 23\u201343 (2020). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/fut.22050","journal-title":"J. Futur. Mark."},{"issue":"2","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/j.finmar.2004.11.001","article-title":"Market microstructure: a survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications","volume":"8","author":"Biais B","year":"2005","unstructured":"Biais, B., Glosten, L., Spatt, C.: Market microstructure: a survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications. J. Financial Markets. 8(2), 217\u2013264 (2005). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.finmar.2004.11.001","journal-title":"J. Financial Markets"},{"key":"ref3","unstructured":"Binance Open Platform: USD-M Futures WebSocket Market Streams. Binance Developer Documentation. (2026). https:\/\/developers.binance.com\/docs\/derivatives\/usds-margined-futures\/websocket-market-streams Accessed 25 June 2026"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.02.001","article-title":"Price discovery of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and beyond","volume":"165","author":"Brauneis A","year":"2018","unstructured":"Brauneis, A., Mestel, R.: Price discovery of cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and beyond. Econ. Lett. 165, 58\u201361 (2018). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.02.001","journal-title":"Econ. Lett."},{"issue":"4","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1405","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1996.tb04074.x","article-title":"Liquidity, information, and infrequently traded stocks","volume":"51","author":"Easley D","year":"1996","unstructured":"Easley, D., Kiefer, N.M., O'Hara, M., Paperman, J.B.: Liquidity, information, and infrequently traded stocks. J. Finance. 51(4), 1405\u20131436 (1996). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1996.tb04074.x","journal-title":"J. Finance"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1457","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/hhs053","article-title":"Flow toxicity and liquidity in a high-frequency world","volume":"25","author":"Easley D","year":"2012","unstructured":"Easley, D., Lopez de Prado, M.M., O'Hara, M.: Flow toxicity and liquidity in a high-frequency world. Rev. Financial Stud. 25(5), 1457\u20131493 (2012). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/rfs\/hhs053","journal-title":"Rev. Financial Stud."},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2017.12.004","article-title":"Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem","volume":"95","author":"Gandal N","year":"2018","unstructured":"Gandal, N., Hamrick, J.T., Moore, T., Oberman, T.: Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem. J. Monet. Econ. 95, 86\u201396 (2018). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2017.12.004","journal-title":"J. Monet. Econ."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-405X(85)90044-3","article-title":"Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders","volume":"14","author":"Glosten LR","year":"1985","unstructured":"Glosten, L.R., Milgrom, P.R.: Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders. J. Financ. Econ. 14(1), 71\u2013100 (1985). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/0304-405X(85)90044-3","journal-title":"J. Financ. Econ."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.1995.10524576","article-title":"Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems","volume":"13","author":"Gonzalo J","year":"1995","unstructured":"Gonzalo, J., Granger, C.: Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems. J. Bus. Economic Stat. 13(1), 27\u201335 (1995). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/07350015.1995.10524576","journal-title":"J. Bus. Economic Stat."},{"issue":"4","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1913","DOI":"10.1111\/jofi.12903","article-title":"Is Bitcoin really untethered?","volume":"75","author":"Griffin JM","year":"2020","unstructured":"Griffin, J.M., Shams, A.: Is Bitcoin really untethered? J. Finance. 75(4), 1913\u20131964 (2020). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/jofi.12903","journal-title":"J. Finance"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1175","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04054.x","article-title":"One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery","volume":"50","author":"Hasbrouck J","year":"1995","unstructured":"Hasbrouck, J.: One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery. J. Finance. 50(4), 1175\u20131199 (1995). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04054.x","journal-title":"J. Finance"},{"key":"ref12","author":"Hyperliquid","year":"2026","unstructured":"Hyperliquid: WebSocket Subscriptions. Hyperliquid Developer Documentation. (2026). https:\/\/hyperliquid.gitbook.io\/hyperliquid-docs\/for-developers\/api\/websocket\/subscriptions Accessed 25 June 2026"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1315","DOI":"10.2307\/1913210","article-title":"Continuous auctions and insider trading","volume":"53","author":"Kyle AS","year":"1985","unstructured":"Kyle, A.S.: Continuous auctions and insider trading. Econometrica. 53(6), 1315\u20131335 (1985). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1913210","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1016\/S1386-4181(00)00007-0","article-title":"Market microstructure: a survey","volume":"3","author":"Madhavan A","year":"2000","unstructured":"Madhavan, A.: Market microstructure: a survey. J. Financial Markets. 3(3), 205\u2013258 (2000). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/S1386-4181(00)00007-0","journal-title":"J. Financial Markets"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"293","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2019.07.001","article-title":"Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets","volume":"135","author":"Makarov I","year":"2020","unstructured":"Makarov, I., Schoar, A.: Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets. J. Financ. Econ. 135(2), 293\u2013319 (2020). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jfineco.2019.07.001","journal-title":"J. Financ. Econ."},{"key":"ref16","volume-title":"Market Microstructure Theory","author":"O'Hara M","year":"1995","unstructured":"O'Hara, M.: Market Microstructure Theory. Blackwell, Oxford (1995)"}],"container-title":[],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-10147582\/v1","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-10147582\/v1.html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]],"date-time":"2026-07-06T06:02:56Z","timestamp":1783317776000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-10147582\/v1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]]},"references-count":16,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-10147582\/v1","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}