{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"institution":[{"name":"Research Square"}],"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,4]],"date-time":"2026-07-04T02:22:23Z","timestamp":1783131743605,"version":"3.54.6"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]]},"group-title":"In Review","reference-count":22,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778544000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,30]]},"abstract":"<title>Abstract<\/title>\n                <p>\n                  New York City\u2019s minimum pay rule for app-based restaurant delivery workers, effective December 2023, raised industry-aggregate hourly pay from $5.05 in the last full pre-rule quarter to $21.49 by the end of 2025. Using the Department of Consumer and Worker Protection\u2019s public quarterly tables across sixteen quarters, this paper tests a framework of regulatory substitution across compensation channels. Chow tests, supremum-Wald structural break tests, and segmented-regression interrupted time series with Newey-West standard errors and permutation-based inference all detect highly significant breaks at the rule\u2019s implementation dates. The realised pay series shows a level shift of $11.6 per hour at Q1 2024 (Chow F\u2009=\u200993.8, permutation p\u2009=\u20090.0002). On-call hours show a level shift of \u2212\u2009673 thousand per week at Q2 2024 (Chow F\u2009=\u200916.1, permutation p\u2009=\u20090.0006); the sup-Wald test selects Q1 2024 (F\u2009=\u200933.1), indicating platforms began draining on-call capacity at enforcement onset. Tips per delivery show a level shift of \u2212$1.71 at Q4 2023 (Chow F\u2009=\u20097.1) intensifying to sup-Wald F\u2009=\u2009171.9 at Q1 2024 once user-interface redesigns at Uber Eats and DoorDash took full effect. Active workers contracted by 32 percent (Chow F\u2009=\u200973.3, level shift\u2009\u2212\u20096.1 thousand). Each substitution arrived in a sequence keyed to which channel the regulator left open. The paper contributes a regulatory-substitution framework: when a wage rule targets one channel of platform compensation, predictable substitution along the unregulated channels follows in a sequence determined by the regulatory architecture.\n                  <bold>JEL classification:<\/bold>\n                  L51 (Economics of Regulation); J38 (Public Policy: Wages); J42 (Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets); K23 (Regulated Industries and Administrative Law)\n                <\/p>","DOI":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-9578165\/v1","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T14:28:49Z","timestamp":1778596129000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Platform Substitution Under New York City\u2019s Food Delivery Pay Rule"],"prefix":"10.21203","author":[{"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"821","DOI":"10.2307\/2951764","article-title":"Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point","volume":"61","author":"Andrews DWK","year":"1993","unstructured":"Andrews, D. W. K. (1993). Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica, 61(4), 821\u2013856. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2951764","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.2307\/2998540","article-title":"Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes","volume":"66","author":"Bai J","year":"1998","unstructured":"Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47\u201378. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2998540","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"348","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyw098","article-title":"Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: A tutorial","volume":"46","author":"Bernal JL","year":"2017","unstructured":"Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: A tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348\u2013355. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ije\/dyw098","journal-title":"International Journal of Epidemiology"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref4","first-page":"772","article-title":"Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania","volume":"84","author":"Card D","year":"1994","unstructured":"Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772\u2013793.","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1405","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjz014","article-title":"The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs","volume":"134","author":"Cengiz D","year":"2019","unstructured":"Cengiz, D., Dube, A., Lindner, A., & Zipperer, B. (2019). The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1405\u20131454. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/qje\/qjz014","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.2307\/1910133","article-title":"Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions","volume":"28","author":"Chow GC","year":"1960","unstructured":"Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591\u2013605. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1910133","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2210","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdaa081","article-title":"The gender earnings gap in the gig economy: Evidence from over a million rideshare drivers","volume":"88","author":"Cook C","year":"2021","unstructured":"Cook, C., Diamond, R., Hall, J. V., List, J. A., & Oyer, P. (2021). The gender earnings gap in the gig economy: Evidence from over a million rideshare drivers. Review of Economic Studies, 88(5), 2210\u20132238. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/restud\/rdaa081","journal-title":"Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"ref8","author":"November","year":"2022","unstructured":"A minimum pay rate for app-based restaurant delivery workers in NYC. Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York, & November (2022). 2022. https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/dca\/workers\/Delivery-Worker-Public-Hearing-Minimum-Pay-Rate.page"},{"key":"ref9","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2024a). Restaurant delivery app data: January\u2013March 2024. July 2024."},{"key":"ref10","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2024b). Restaurant delivery app data: April\u2013June 2024."},{"key":"ref11","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2024c). Restaurant delivery app data: July\u2013September 2024."},{"key":"ref12","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2024d). Restaurant delivery app data: October\u2013December 2024."},{"key":"ref13","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2025). Restaurant delivery app data: Quarterly aggregated tables. https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/dca\/workers\/Delivery-Worker-Public-Hearing-Minimum-Pay-Rate.page"},{"key":"ref14","unstructured":"Department of Consumer and Worker Protection, City of New York (2026). Uber Eats and DoorDash engineered a $554 million pay cut: NYC is fighting back. January 2026."},{"issue":"4","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"945","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00039","article-title":"Minimum wage effects across state borders: Estimates using contiguous counties","volume":"92","author":"Dube A","year":"2010","unstructured":"Dube, A., Lester, T. W., & Reich, M. (2010). Minimum wage effects across state borders: Estimates using contiguous counties. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 945\u2013964. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/REST_a_00039","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00946","article-title":"Optimal defaults with normative ambiguity","volume":"104","author":"Goldin J","year":"2020","unstructured":"Goldin, J., & Reck, D. (2020). Optimal defaults with normative ambiguity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 17\u201333. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/rest_a_00946","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1177\/0019793917717222","article-title":"An analysis of the labor market for Uber\u2019s driver-partners in the United States","volume":"71","author":"Hall JV","year":"2018","unstructured":"Hall, J. V., & Krueger, A. B. (2018). An analysis of the labor market for Uber\u2019s driver-partners in the United States. ILR Review, 71(3), 705\u2013732. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0019793917717222","journal-title":"ILR Review"},{"key":"ref18","volume-title":"Monopsony in motion: Imperfect competition in labor markets","author":"Manning A","year":"2003","unstructured":"Manning, A. (2003). Monopsony in motion: Imperfect competition in labor markets. Princeton University Press."},{"issue":"1","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1177\/0019793920922499","article-title":"Monopsony in labor markets: A review","volume":"74","author":"Manning A","year":"2021","unstructured":"Manning, A. (2021). Monopsony in labor markets: A review. ILR Review, 74(1), 3\u201326. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/0019793920922499","journal-title":"ILR Review"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.2307\/2297912","article-title":"Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation","volume":"61","author":"Newey WK","year":"1994","unstructured":"Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1994). Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation. Review of Economic Studies, 61(4), 631\u2013653. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/2297912","journal-title":"Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"ref21","author":"Parrott JA","year":"2018","unstructured":"Parrott, J. A., & Reich, M. (2018). An earnings standard for New York City\u2019s app-based drivers: Economic analysis and policy assessment. Center for New York City Affairs, New School. July 2018."},{"key":"ref22","volume-title":"Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness","author":"Thaler RH","year":"2008","unstructured":"Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. Yale University Press."}],"container-title":[],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-9578165\/v1","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-9578165\/v1.html","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,4]],"date-time":"2026-07-04T01:55:59Z","timestamp":1783130159000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-9578165\/v1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]]},"references-count":22,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21203\/rs.3.rs-9578165\/v1","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}