{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,10]],"date-time":"2026-02-10T14:57:45Z","timestamp":1770735465114,"version":"3.49.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":59,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study develops an analytical framework integrating a fire regime model and a land-use choice model to maximize the net economic returns from land use while keeping the probability of an extreme fire regime (EFR) below a socially acceptable level, or wildfire policy constraint. This analytical framework is applied and tested at a nationwide scale, for the whole of mainland Portugal, where an EFR characterized by high cumulative burnt areas and their temporal concentration has been expanding, and a Landscape Transformation Programme has been adopted by Government. By taking into account biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity, and thus variation in the relative profitability of different land-use classes across the country, the optimization model yields case-specific land-use solutions that respect the wildfire policy constraint on EFR probability at a minimum cost for each particular landscape area. By running the model for successively lower levels of the EFR probability, we got the required areal extent, intensity, direction (in terms of land-use change) and marginal cost of landscape transformation for each level of policy ambition about the EFR probability reduction. This marginal cost rises with the level of policy ambition, which raises issues about the affordability and optimality of each level of policy ambition. The approach is assessed as useful to promote the cost-effectiveness of the Landscape Transformation Programme in Portugal as well as that of policies in different countries with similar policy goals and fire regimes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6205212","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,9]],"date-time":"2026-02-09T18:43:36Z","timestamp":1770662616000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Land-use optimization to support landscape transformation policies aimed at reducing the probability of an extreme fire regime at the lowest possible cost"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2374-9391","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rui  Ser\u00f4dio","family":"Sim\u00f5es","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2648-1888","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Paulo","family":"Flores Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3546-3932","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Marta","family":"Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0205-0645","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Isabel","family":"Martins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0891-4897","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jo\u00e3o","family":"Morais Mourato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8122-692X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jose","family":"Lima Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1007\/s10457-008-9165-y","article-title":"Are drought and wildfires turning Mediterranean cork oak forests into persistent shrublands?","volume":"76","author":"V Ac\ufffdcio","year":"2009","journal-title":"Agroforestry Systems"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref2","article-title":"Fire regime attributes shape pre-fire vegetation characteristics controlling extreme fire behavior under different bioregions in Spain","volume":"20","author":"D Beltr\ufffdn-Marcos","year":"2024","journal-title":"Fire Ecology"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/f12050522","article-title":"Understanding the impact of different landscape-level fuel management strategies on wildfire hazard in central Portugal","volume":"12","author":"A Benali","year":"2021","journal-title":"Forests"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.152314","article-title":"Biophysical controls over fire regime properties in Central Portugal","volume":"810","author":"R Bergonse","year":"2022","journal-title":"Science of The Total Environment"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1145","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-023-01323-y","article-title":"Substantial and increasing global losses of timber-producing forest due to wildfires","volume":"16","author":"C G Bousfield","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nature Geoscience"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"350","DOI":"10.1007\/s13280-018-1084-1","article-title":"Human-environmental drivers and impacts of the globally extreme 2017 Chilean fires","volume":"48","author":"D M J S Bowman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ambio"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2020.105136","article-title":"Simplistic understandings of farmer motivations could undermine the environmental potential of the common agricultural policy","author":"C Brown","year":"2021"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4019","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-22-4019-2022","article-title":"Drivers of extreme burnt area in Portugal: fire weather and vegetation","volume":"22","author":"T Calheiros","year":"2022","journal-title":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac64b5","article-title":"Climate regulation ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation are enhanced differently by climate-and fire-smart landscape management","volume":"17","author":"J C Campos","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environmental Research Letters"},{"key":"ref10","author":"M J Canadas","year":"2024","journal-title":"The current policy focus shift from a sectoral to a territorial governance of wildfire reduction is aligned with forest owners' preferences. 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