{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,16]],"date-time":"2026-02-16T22:27:38Z","timestamp":1771280858941,"version":"3.50.1"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":67,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) model offers a flexible, data-driven alternative to rigid weighting schemes for assessing national energy management performance (EMP), but its optimization structure can lead to overestimated performance. This study introduces a novel hybrid approach combining BoD with Hit-and-Run (H&amp;R) randomized sampling to enhance assessment robustness. The methodology was applied to 174 countries using 13 energy indicators from 2022. First, conventional BoD scores were calculated. Then, 100,000 H&amp;R simulations per country were performed, adhering to BoD constraints including a 0.02 minimum indicator weight, to explore the entire feasible weight space. This generated a distribution of possible scores and rankings for each country. Statistical comparison revealed that conventional BoD scores exhibited a consistent upward bias, averaging 0.2381 higher than mean H&amp;R scores (p &lt; 0.001, t(173) = 50.82). While overall rank correlation between the two assessment methods remained strong (Spearman\u2019s \u03c1 \u2248 0.934), significant rank fluctuations were observed for many countries, with a maximum downward shift of 111 positions. The analysis allowed for the identification of countries whose performance evaluations were highly sensitive to specific weighting configurations versus those with more stable evaluations. This BoD-H&amp;R framework provides a more dependable method for international energy benchmarking by quantifying and mitigating optimism bias and offering policymakers a clearer view of comparative performance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6250772","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,16]],"date-time":"2026-02-16T21:46:34Z","timestamp":1771278394000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Robustness of Benefit of the Doubt in Energy Management Performance Assessment: A Hit-and-Run Randomized Weights Approach Across 174 Countries"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-7112-1810","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Filipe Ribeiro de","family":"Almeida Farinhas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-3742-2046","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Guilherme","family":"Vara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5418-9337","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Diogo  Cunha","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9643-5345","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Paulo","family":"Caldas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"ref1","first-page":"278","article-title":"The efficiency of australian universities: A data envelopment analysis","volume":"27","author":"M Abbott","year":"2008","journal-title":"Economics of Education Review"},{"key":"ref2","first-page":"99","article-title":"Exploring the bidirectional long run relationship between urbanization, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission","volume":"86","author":"U Al-Mulali","year":"2015","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1018968909638","article-title":"Weights restrictions and value judgements in data envelopment analysis: Evolution, development and future directions","volume":"73","author":"R Allen","year":"1997","journal-title":"Annals of Operations Research"},{"key":"ref4","first-page":"597","volume":"86","author":"B W Ang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Energy security: Concepts, policies, and measures. 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