{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T14:02:53Z","timestamp":1785333773685,"version":"3.55.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper investigates whether a Bayesian-based predictive model can estimate FDA drug approval probabilities more accurately than market-implied probabilities derived from options pricing. Using logistic regression on five fundamental predictors-phase success rates, company size, advisory committee votes, trial endpoint strength, and historical approval rates-we construct a model probability and compare it against options-implied probability. A simple long\/short trading rule is applied when divergence between the two exceeds a threshold. The model is evaluated using Brier scores, ROC curves, and realized trading profitability. Our findings suggest that fundamental-driven probability estimates can systematically outperform market-implied probabilities, offering a statistically significant and economically meaningful trading edge in biotech event-driven strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6301339","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T13:11:37Z","timestamp":1785330697000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Bayesian Approval Probability Model for FDA Drug Announcements"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-1938-8934","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zulfiqar Ali","family":"Mir","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aziz ul","family":"Qadir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T13:11:37Z","timestamp":1785330697000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6301339"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6301339","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}