{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,20]],"date-time":"2026-03-20T02:16:07Z","timestamp":1773972967658,"version":"3.50.1"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":84,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>CONTEXT: Viticulture is one of the most important agricultural sectors in Europe, significantly contributing to its economy and social culture in several regions. Still, it is highly sensitive to climate conditions and thus exposed to climate change risks. Past research on the European scale has examined how future climate scenarios might affect viticulture, but these studies often relied on single-model methods, coarse spatial data, or outdated climate models. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide a very high-resolution (\u22481 km) land suitability assessment for viticulture for Europe under current and future climate conditions by combining a Machine Learning (ML) ensemble model with multiple downscaled CMIP6 climate projections. METHODS: A comprehensive set of 28 bioclimatic indices was initially considered, from which six key variables were selected using correlation analysis and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). A species distribution modeling framework (Biomod2) was used to develop an ensemble model integrating six Machine Learning algorithms. Vineyard occurrence data were derived from the CORINE Land Cover Database. Projections were produced for a historical period (1981\u20132010) and two future time horizons (2041\u20132070 and 2071\u20132100) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The ensemble model demonstrated excellent predictive performance (TSS = 0.87, ROC = 0.99, Kappa = 0.87). Results indicate a general northward latitudinal shift of climatically suitable areas for viticulture. Projections revealed moderate losses under SSP1-2.6 and pronounced contractions under SSP5-8.5, particularly in the Iberian Peninsula. Conversely, substantial suitability gains are projected in central and northern Europe, representing an important opportunity for several possible new winemaking countries in the future. SIGNIFICANCE: This study represents the first application of an ensemble of machine learning algorithms on a European scale to assess suitable areas for viticulture and the future spatial redistribution driven by climate change. Results reveal that climate change will pose increasing challenges to traditional wine-producing regions, while emerging suitable areas in central and northern Europe suggest a future development of new viticultural regions, with a possible reconfiguration of the sector in the long term.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6443482","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,19]],"date-time":"2026-03-19T21:43:36Z","timestamp":1773956616000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Redistribution of European Viticulture Suitability under Future CMIP6 Scenarios: an Ensemble Framework approach"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-8270-2951","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Emanuele Antero","family":"Serra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9711-5482","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Marta","family":"Debolini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8135-5078","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jo\u00e3o  A.","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6124-1578","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ant\u00f3nio  Carlos","family":"Pinheiro Fernandes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5209-0237","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Teresa  R.","family":"Freitas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Helder","family":"Fraga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5661-0241","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Donatella","family":"Spano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1555","DOI":"10.1007\/s10457-024-01025-3","article-title":"The potential of agroforestry to buffer climate change impacts on suitability of coffee and banana in Uganda","volume":"98","author":"D Abigaba","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agroforestry Systems"},{"key":"ref2","article-title":"Relocation of bioclimatic suitability of Portuguese grapevine varieties under climate change scenarios","volume":"14","author":"F Ad\ufffdo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Frontiers in Plant Science"},{"key":"ref3","volume":"14","author":"B Adhikari","year":"2023","journal-title":"Climate-driven decline in the habitat of the endemic spiny babbler (Turdoides nipalensis)"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.01132","article-title":"spThin: An R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models","volume":"38","author":"M E Aiello-Lammens","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"ref5","article-title":"Climate change-induced reduction in agricultural land suitability of West-Africa's inland valley landscapes","author":"K Akpoti","year":"2022","journal-title":"Agricultural Systems"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.136165","article-title":"Mapping suitability for rice production in inland valley landscapes in Benin and Togo using environmental niche modeling","volume":"709","author":"K Akpoti","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science of the Total Environment"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agsy.2019.02.013","article-title":"Agricultural land suitability analysis: State-of-the-art and outlooks for integration of climate change analysis","volume":"173","author":"K Akpoti","year":"2019","journal-title":"Agricultural Systems"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.14337","article-title":"Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change","volume":"1472","author":"R P Allan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)","volume":"43","author":"O Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Ecology"},{"key":"ref10","first-page":"493","volume":"15","author":"M A Amerine","year":"1944","journal-title":"Composition and quality of musts and wines of California grapes"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"149","DOI":"10.20870\/oeno-one.2012.46.3.1515","article-title":"Analysis of viticulture region climate structure and suitability in New Zealand","volume":"46","author":"J D Anderson","year":"2012","journal-title":"OENO One"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref12","article-title":"Ecological niche model comparison under different climate scenarios: A case study of Olea spp","volume":"8","author":"U Ashraf","year":"2017","journal-title":"Asia. 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