{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:43:01Z","timestamp":1786729381463,"version":"build-2736575974"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Using nanosecond-resolution Market-by-Order data from Databento (CME\/NYMEX\/COMEX) and tick-level trade data from Binance, I trace how the 2026 Iran War propagated through the microstructure of crude oil futures, equity index futures, gold futures, and cryptocurrency markets across five escalation phases. WTI crude oil (CL) median order lifetime collapsed from 148ms to 66ms at the first Monday open after the strikes (-55%) and exhibited a V-shaped pattern across phases, a persistent shift in market maker quoting behavior that did not reverse even during the ceasefire. E-mini S&amp;amp;P 500 (ES) lifetimes collapsed from 106ms to 18ms (-83%) and E-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ) from 46ms to 7ms (-86%). Oil prices surged 48% from $66.87 to $98.83 across the conflict phases, with the highest intra-hour volatility occurring during the wind-down phase, not during the initial strikes. Cryptocurrency markets, trading 24\/7, absorbed the shock in real time: BTC volume surged +409% and realized volatility increased +228% on Binance during the strike weekend, while CME markets were closed. ETH exhibited even larger surges (+700% volume, +627% realized volatility). Unlike tariff shocks where volume drives liquidity withdrawal (r =-0.91), geopolitical shocks show no significant volume-lifetime relationship (r =-0.15, p = 0.50), indicating that uncertainty-driven quote withdrawal, not volume-driven adverse selection, dominates during armed conflict.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6582178","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,20]],"date-time":"2026-04-20T16:24:42Z","timestamp":1776702282000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Geopolitical Shock Transmission to Digital Asset Markets: Order Book Evidence from the 2026 Iran War"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:18:41Z","timestamp":1786727921000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6582178"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6582178","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}