{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:43:00Z","timestamp":1786729380096,"version":"build-2736575974"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>We test whether the Bitcoin halving-a protocol-mandated 50% reduction in block subsidy occurring approximately every four years-retains its historical role as a price-formation event. Using daily BTC-USD prices from 17 September 2014 through 15 April 2026, we conduct a market-model event study around halvings two through four, benchmarking against the SPDR S&amp;amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) as a market proxy. We document a structural break: the cycle-four [-30, +90] cumulative abnormal return is-41.5% (t =-1.86), and the [-30, +365] CAR is-19.6% (t =-0.49), in sharp contrast to cycle three's +172.2% over the same long window (t = 2.34). We then estimate a daily regression of BTC log returns on US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF dollar volume (an activityintensity proxy), equity, dollar, and gold returns over the post-ETF-launch period (January 2024 through April 2026). Equity-market returns dominate the explained variation, with a SPY coefficient of approximately 1.04 (t \u2248 4.9, R\u00b2 = 0.17). Neither the ETF dollar-volume term nor a halving-window dummy contributes statistically significant explanatory power. We interpret these results as evidence of a two-part regime change: (i) the halving has lost its predictive content for Bitcoin returns, and (ii) Bitcoin has become, in the post-ETF era, a risk asset with near-unit equitymarket beta. We flag the need for signed net-flow data (rather than a volume-based proxy) to formally test flow-dominance hypotheses in future work.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6589402","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,20]],"date-time":"2026-04-20T16:28:51Z","timestamp":1776702531000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Issuance Shocks in Mature Crypto Markets An Event-Study Analysis of the Bitcoin Halving and the Financialisation of BTC in Cycle Four"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:18:22Z","timestamp":1786727902000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6589402"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6589402","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}