{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:44:35Z","timestamp":1786729475143,"version":"build-2736575974"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Yield curve inversions are commonly treated as a homogeneous signal of credit stress. Using monthly U.S. data from 1986 to 2024 and six identifiable inversion episodes defined by the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread, I show that the relationship between yield curve inversion and investment-grade credit spreads is strongly heterogeneous across episodes. An episode-interacted regression decisively rejects the null of coefficient homogeneity (Wald \u03c7\u00b2(5) = 436.7, p &amp;lt; 0.001); episode-specific inversion coefficients range from-0.37 to +0.13 percentage points with differing signs. Pooled regressions yield no significant effect, but this null reflects cancellation rather than a stable zero relationship. In per-episode predictive regressions at a six-month horizon, only the 2022-2024 episode shows a statistically significant relationship between inversion depth and subsequent spread changes (\u03b2 = +0.22, t = 3.11, p = 0.002, R\u00b2 = 0.74). Results are robust to an alternative inversion measure (T10Y3M), an alternative credit spread (BAA minus 10-year Treasury), a continuous inversion-depth measure, and both full-sample and rolling standardization of the spread. The apparent pooled relationship between inversion and spreads in recent data is driven almost entirely by the 2022-2024 episode, suggesting the post-COVID inversion is structurally distinct from prior episodes rather than a repetition of a common pattern.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6607358","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,24]],"date-time":"2026-04-24T13:31:43Z","timestamp":1777037503000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Episode Heterogeneity in the Yield Curve Inversion\u2013Credit Spread Relationship: Evidence from Six U.S. Inversion Episodes, 1986\u20132024"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T17:24:32Z","timestamp":1786728272000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6607358"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6607358","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}