{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T20:02:40Z","timestamp":1786737760866,"version":"build-2736575974"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Two prediction-market venues list nominally identical contracts on the same event, but Kalshi's CFTC-registered terms exclude resolution paths involving the death of a named individual while Polymarket's do not. I exploit the February 28, 2026 strikes against Iran's Supreme Leader to identify the price effect of this settlement asymmetry. During the 21-hour news-arrival window, Polymarket's YES contract converged to 0.997 while Kalshi's identical-deadline contract halted at 0.08, a wedge of 0.89. I derive a closed-form expression for the wedge under the death carveout: it equals the product of the unconditional event probability, the disqualifying-path probability, and the haircut. I identify each regime boundary in the wedge's intraday trajectory against a named, timestamped public news event. The most prominent informed-flow event was a concentrated sell episode on Kalshi's March 01 contract over 17:07-17:11 UTC, in which approximately 340,000 net contracts were sold across four minutes, transitioning the contract into its 0.08 plateau. The single largest minute (17:08) sold 121,263 net contracts, approximately 11 times the next-largest non-episode signed minute in the four-hour window. This episode preceded U.S. Presidential confirmation of Khamenei's death by approximately 4.5 hours, identifying anticipatory pricing of the binding carveout from credible early reports. Kalshi bidask spreads remain at one cent (median) across all four regimes, making liquidity-based explanations for wedges of magnitude 0.40-0.89 quantitatively implausible. Across three matched horizons in the same Khamenei series, the post-news plateau wedge declines monotonically from 0.89 (1-day deadline) to 0.40 (10-month deadline), consistent with the model's prediction that longer horizons admit more non-disqualifying paths in the conditional set. The findings reframe the recent cross-venue price-discovery literature: Hasbrouck-style information shares estimated on prediction-market data are misspecified when contracts differ in their state-contingent payoffs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6704139","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T00:36:40Z","timestamp":1777855000000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Kalshi's Ceiling: Settlement Asymmetry and the Intraday Limits of Cross-Venue Repricing in Event Contracts"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T18:59:05Z","timestamp":1786733945000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6704139"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6704139","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}