{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T14:12:05Z","timestamp":1785334325775,"version":"3.55.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>I test the four most accessible sources of putative edge in spot FX, using only data a retail participant can obtain freely or cheaply, with a uniform evaluation protocol: walk-forward where models are fit, transaction costs on all turnover, deflated Sharpe ratios for multiple testing, and stationary block-bootstrap significance. None is tradeable. Intraday (five-minute) return prediction shows no edge over a naive baseline after costs and deflation. Short-horizon volatility is forecastable, but a Heterogeneous AutoRegressive (HAR) model captures essentially all of it and microstructure-feature machine learning adds nothing incremental, in forecasting or in position sizing. At daily frequency over 2005-2026 on seven majors, time-series momentum and cross-sectional carry both produce statistically insignificant returns net of costs. The two premia weakened in opposite temporal patterns: trend was positive pre-2015 and negative after, while carry lost in the first half (crisis drawdowns) and recovered weakly in the second. The contribution is a single, honestly-bounded statement of absence across the retail-accessible opportunity set, and a delineation of where remaining edge plausibly lies: high-resolution orderbook microstructure, which retail bar data cannot reach.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6871118","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T13:44:19Z","timestamp":1785332659000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Testing Common Forex Trading Strategies: A Null Result An empirical note Boon Chuan Lim"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T13:44:19Z","timestamp":1785332659000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6871118"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6871118","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}