{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T16:17:05Z","timestamp":1783527425622,"version":"3.55.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper examines cross-venue price discovery between Binance and Hyperliquid BTC perpetual futures, asking whether informed on-chain order flow follows the dominant centralised venue or anticipates subsequent price movement on it. The study aligns Binance and Hyperliquid order-book data by venue event time over 25 May 2026 to 22 June 2026, combining lead-lag cross-correlations, Hasbrouck information-share estimates, wallet-level signed markouts, and splitsample persistence tests. Hyperliquid wallet addresses allow repeated trader-level behaviour to be observed, while Binance mid-prices provide the centralised-exchange reference series. At the venue level, Binance leads Hyperliquid in every price-discovery window, and the informed Hyperliquid cohort also follows Binance on average: signed Binance price movement before cohort trades exceeds movement after cohort trades at 2, 5 and 10 second horizons. However, the aggregate average conceals substantial wallet heterogeneity. A minority of wallets show an anticipatory signature, and split-sample tests indicate that this leadership is persistent out of sample, with the strongest half-1 lead-score quintile remaining the only quintile with positive half-2 lead across all tested horizons. The paper therefore shifts the empirical object from venue-level price discovery to wallet-level cross-venue informed flow, showing that a venue can be a follower on average while still hosting a persistent minority of wallets whose trades precede movement on the dominant venue.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.6993378","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T15:28:53Z","timestamp":1783524533000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Binance Leads, but Some Wallets Anticipate: Wallet-Level Cross-Venue Informed Flow in BTC Perpetual Futures"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T15:28:54Z","timestamp":1783524534000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=6993378"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.6993378","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}