{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T21:00:46Z","timestamp":1784840446484,"version":"3.55.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>This document is a pre-analysis plan. It commits, before outcomes are fully realised, to a design for studying the July 2026 escalation of the US-Iran conflict (\"Episode 2\") using the sample, exposure classification, outcome measures, and inference suite of my published study of the February 2026 Hormuz shock (Lim, 2026; \"Episode 1\"). Episode 1 produced a single-channel result: Parkinson intraday volatility at highly fuelcost-exposed firms rose by 23 log points at the war's onset, while daily spread proxies did not widen within the importer panel and the Amihud price impact gave mixed evidence. The central question here is whether markets habituate to a repeated shock of the same type. Episode 2 is kinetically more severe than Episode 1: a sustained nightly strike campaign, a reinstated naval blockade, and a collapse in Strait of Hormuz tanker transits. The oil market response has nonetheless been markedly smaller. I pre-register two comparisons: whether the volatility-channel response is attenuated, unchanged, or amplified in Episode 2 relative to Episode 1, and whether the volatility-without-liquidity-withdrawal channel structure replicates. Both directions of the first comparison are declared admissible. The plan fixes the sample, measures, event dates, estimation windows, a sample freeze rule, and the inference procedure. Analysis will begin only after the freeze date.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7137338","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T20:03:34Z","timestamp":1784837014000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Do Asian Equity Markets Habituate to Geopolitical Shocks? A Pre-Analysis Plan for the Second Hormuz Episode"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-8477-9393","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Boon Chuan","family":"Lim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T20:03:34Z","timestamp":1784837014000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7137338"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7137338","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}