{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T00:58:13Z","timestamp":1790729893571,"version":"4.1.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper tests whether dispersion in market-implied Federal Open Market Committee outcomes contains information about the long-run component of U.S. equity volatility. For 38 meetings, I construct the crossoutcome variance of Kalshi probabilities over days-30 to-3 and embed it in a fixed (K=4), uniform-weight GARCH-MIDAS model for 824 S&amp;amp;P 500 trading days. The raw loading is 0.3621 (LR = 7.9637; asymptotic p = 0.00477; 999-draw meeting randomization p = 0.027). Residualizing on the implied policy mean and log volume gives 0.3570 (LR = 8.5072; p = 0.00354; randomization p = 0.027). A stronger support audit conditions on the number and span of outcome bins that the exchange lists for each meeting. Its loading is 0.3675 (LR = 9.5400; p = 0.00201), and a conditional meeting randomization that re-estimates the support adjustment in every draw gives p = 0.018. Activating the factor three business days before, on, or one business day after the meeting yields positive loadings with p-values of 0.0041, 0.0020, and 0.0197. Entropy is insignificant, showing that economic distance across rate outcomes-not probability fragmentation alone-carries the signal. All leave-one-meeting-out variance loadings remain positive. The evidence is an insample relation between pre-decision policy-outcome dispersion and the fitted long-run volatility state; a short 2026 holdout does not improve forecasts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7531599","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T00:16:53Z","timestamp":1790727413000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Market-Implied Policy-Outcome Dispersion and Long-Run Equity Volatility: Meeting-Level Evidence from Kalshi FOMC Contracts"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-4055-7561","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fuli","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T00:16:53Z","timestamp":1790727413000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7531599"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7531599","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}