{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,27]],"date-time":"2026-09-27T13:57:06Z","timestamp":1790517426657,"version":"4.1.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Forecast improvements are widely expected to enhance trading performance, yet their economic value depends on how forecast information is incorporated into contracting decisions. This paper studies the interaction between spot price forecasting and forward contracting in a regulated, sequential electricity market. We first develop an integrated framework that embeds month-ahead spot price forecasts and retailer portfolio choices into a forward equilibrium model. Then, using data from China&amp;apos;s Guangdong wholesale market, we demonstrate that while a hybrid approach combing structural modelling with machine learning substantially improves forecasting accuracy, the improvements alone do not guarantee higher profitability. Economic gains arise only when retailers can flexibly adjust forward positions in response. We further document pronounced heterogeneity across retailers of varying sizes and regulatory conditions. Overall, the results illustrate how the value of information in electricity markets is shaped by forward contracting institutions and regulatory design.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7532299","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,27]],"date-time":"2026-09-27T13:15:51Z","timestamp":1790514951000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Forecasting, Forward Contracting, and Retailer Performance in a Regulated Electricity Market"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5881-6198","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bowei","family":"Guo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu\u2019an","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ye","family":"Jin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,27]],"date-time":"2026-09-27T13:15:51Z","timestamp":1790514951000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7532299"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7532299","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}