{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T13:50:46Z","timestamp":1791381046412,"version":"4.3.3"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>&lt;div&gt;\n &lt;span&gt;Two simple rules are widely used to limit drawdowns in equity portfolios. The 200-day moving-average rule moves to cash when the price closes below its trailing 200-day average; volatility targeting scales the position by the ratio of a long-run to a recent estimate of volatility. We compare the two, and their combination, in a registered walk-forward test on SPY from 2000 to 2025 and on thirteen other exchange-traded funds. Each rule has one setting fixed in advance, positions never exceed full investment, and every trade costs 0.02%.&lt;\/span&gt;\n&lt;\/div&gt;\n&lt;div&gt;\n &lt;span&gt;We sort SPY's six drawdowns of 15% or more by speed. In the prolonged bear markets of 2000 to 2002 and 2007 to 2009 the moving-average rule lost less than half as much as SPY and recovered years earlier; volatility targeting cut the 2007 to 2009 loss by a third but did not help in 2000 to 2002. In the fast crashes of 2018 and 2020 volatility targeting lost about as much as the moving-average rule or less and recovered months earlier. Over the full period volatility targeting compounded at 6.28% a year against 6.12% for SPY, while the moving-average rule gave up 1.67 points a year, partly through repeated exits and re-entries in trendless markets. Sorting the events by speed tells which rule protected better in four of the six; which rule acted first depended instead on how sharply volatility rose.&lt;\/span&gt;\n&lt;\/div&gt;<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7564983","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T12:53:06Z","timestamp":1791377586000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Drawdown Protection in Slow Bear Markets and Fast Crashes: Volatility Targeting and the 200-Day Moving Average, 2000 to 2025"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-4361-1180","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Serhat","family":"Girgin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T12:53:06Z","timestamp":1791377586000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7564983"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7564983","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}