{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T13:59:50Z","timestamp":1791813590377,"version":"4.3.4"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Closing returns omit information about the position of the close within an observed trading interval. We study whether downside and upside excursions improve international equity-index forecasting and whether additional foreign excursion predictors are useful for extreme conditional quantiles. Six weekly equity indices over 2016-2026 are analyzed with nested closing-only, domestic-geometric, and group-regularized international forecasting specifications. We distinguish conditional-mean Ridge\/Group Elastic Net forecasts, residual-calibrated tail quantiles, direct penalized quantile regression, and a predictable exponentially weighted excursion scale. In a 384-week mean-forecast experiment, domestic interval information reduces pooled downside mean squared error by 15.2%. In a separate, 352-week direct quantile experiment with volatility scaling, it reduces 95th-percentile pinball loss by 9.0%, with exploratory multiplicity-adjusted block-bootstrap support. Additional penalized foreign excursions do not improve pooled out-of-sample performance. Extreme-quantile coverage nevertheless deteriorates markedly during the COVID-19 episode. These findings distinguish the value of interval information from the value of network complexity, and illustrate how apparently important reduced-form international relationships may fail to translate into stable tail forecasts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7595078","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T13:22:57Z","timestamp":1791811377000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Beyond the Close: Price Intervals and International Downside Risk Forecasting"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7308-428X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jules","family":"Sadefo Kamdem","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T13:22:57Z","timestamp":1791811377000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7595078"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7595078","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}