{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T19:45:16Z","timestamp":1791834316643,"version":"4.3.4"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Triple Supertrend, a trend-following rule that trades only when three Average True Range bands agree, is widely used by Indian retail traders. We test it on an equal-weighted portfolio of the stocks that were members of the Nifty 50 on each day from January 2010 to October 2026, using National Stock Exchange (NSE) end-of-day files adjusted for splits, bonuses, rights issues, demergers and dividends with NSE's own corporate-action records. The panel covers 99.3% of index member-days, including companies later delisted. Parameters are chosen on 2010-2018 and tested unchanged on 2019-2026. Out of sample, the strategy returns 8.0% a year against 15.1% for buy-and-hold, with volatility of 8.5% against 17.4% and a maximum drawdown of-12.1% against-38.6%. The Sharpe ratios (0.96 and 0.90) are statistically indistinguishable. Back-filling today's constituents overstates buy-andhold returns by 7-10 percentage points a year. Buying index options on the same signals loses money in simulation. The rule behaves as a risk-reduction overlay rather than a source of excess return.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7600719","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T18:54:24Z","timestamp":1791831264000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Does a Popular Trading Signal Beat Buy-and-Hold?"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"given":"Abhinav","family":"Gudipati","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T18:54:24Z","timestamp":1791831264000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7600719"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7600719","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}