{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T00:52:53Z","timestamp":1791852773346,"version":"4.3.4"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>The yield curve is a fundamental tool for monetary, financial, and fiscal analysis. However, most term structure models have been developed for deep and liquid financial markets and their relevance in shallow and institutionally fragmented economies remains insufficiently explored. This study examines the applicability of yield curve modeling in Guinea, a Sub-Saharan African economy characterized by the absence of a stock exchange, limited secondary market activity, and the dominant role of banks in sovereign securities intermediation. The analysis uses Treasury securities auction data covering the period 2022-2024 and maturities ranging from 91 days to four years. The Nelson-Siegel (NS) and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson (NSS) models are estimated using nonlinear least squares, and their performance is evaluated through insample fit, information criteria, and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. The findings indicate that a coherent and economically meaningful yield curve can be estimated despite significant liquidity constraints and data limitations. The estimated term structure is upward sloping, with long-term yields ranging from approximately 12 percent under the NSS specification to 14 percent under the NS specification, reflecting persistent inflation expectations and a substantial sovereign risk premium. The negative slope factor and positive curvature suggest expectations of future monetary easing and significant liquidity segmentation across maturities. While the NSS model provides superior goodness of fit and forecasting performance, the NS model appears more stable for long-term extrapolation. Overall, the results demonstrate that term structure models retain valuable informational content in shallow financial markets and can support monetary policy analysis, sovereign debt management, and policy communication in financially underdeveloped economies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7603720","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T00:39:58Z","timestamp":1791851998000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Yield Curve Construction in a Shallow Financial Market: The Case of the Government Securities Market in Guinea"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-8695-5279","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ibrahima I I","family":"Diallo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T00:39:58Z","timestamp":1791851998000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7603720"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7603720","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}