{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T20:48:21Z","timestamp":1791924501113,"version":"4.3.4"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":19,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Smart Money Concepts (SMC) is one of the most widely marketed retail trading methods, yet its claims have not been tested in the peer-reviewed literature. We implement a production SMC indicator as a fully rule-based intraday strategy on spot gold, using one-minute data from 2012 to 2026, and pre-register every test. To isolate entry timing, each signal is paired with random entries that share its side, stop, and target. Timing contributes nothing: under every regime filter, target rule and benchmark the timing component is indistinguishable from zero, and at a one-hour horizon a positive effect as small as 0.01R per trade is rejected. Returns that exist come from a slow trend filter and the exit rule. Net of spread and financing, they are positive only in the 2021-2026 bull market and never statistically significant. Two independent price feeds produce almost entirely different signals but the same aggregate returns. We also show that the common symmetric random-entry benchmark is biased upward for trend-gated strategies by 0.06-0.23R per trade here, and makes a neutral rule look harmful. Across ten markets, cost relative to the structural stop decides outcomes, and no market is profitable in every period. A trend filter alone is not a viable strategy once financing is charged.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7608245","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T19:59:02Z","timestamp":1791921542000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Is There Timing in Smart Money? A Pre-Registered Decomposition of Structure-Based Intraday Trading Returns"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-4240-9615","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Khachik","family":"Babayans","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"ref1","first-page":"94","article-title":"The deflated Sharpe ratio: Correcting for selection bias, backtest overfitting, and non-normality","volume":"40","author":"D H Bailey","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Portfolio Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2012.06.001","article-title":"Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs","volume":"106","author":"P Bajgrowicz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Financial Economics"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x","article-title":"Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? 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