{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T10:42:37Z","timestamp":1792579357200,"version":"4.5.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":23,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>What evidence remains after a trading rule is rejected? We audit one team's archive of 283 records, including 260 registered candidates and 248 training submissions. Among 210 main-analysis rejections, the frozen nominal classification remains 23 exclusions, 52 non-exclusions and 135 unevaluable rules. A separate training-series verification using Newey-West and moving-block bootstrap standard errors retains 22 exclusions and overturns one; two implementations agree on all 25 required direction rows, with method differences disclosed. The overturned exclusion has a robust upper bound of about 0.66 against a 0.5 threshold. Annualization and two observation counts are corrected or confirmed without changing frozen categories. Timing evidence for 31 openings is graded strong for 20, moderate for five and counterevidenced for six previously disclosed cases; commit order cannot prove absence of earlier access. Independent documentary comparisons agree initially on 40 of 53 cross-period pairs. After adjudication, 33 are comparable, 19 incompatible and one undetermined; ten comparable pairs increase and 23 decrease, without identifying a decay magnitude. All nominal exclusions also carry secondary stopping failures. The anonymous package reproduces classifications and verification-summary arithmetic and supplies nine selected synthetic scenarios, without proprietary return sequences. These results separate stopping decisions from retained evidence; they do not establish selective or joint coverage or identify historical missed discoveries. AI disclosure: research execution (coding, computation, record extraction and audit, numerical reconciliation) and drafting were carried out extensively with Claude (Anthropic) and GPT (OpenAI) agents under the author's supervision; the author is responsible for the design decisions, review and all content.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7618885","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,17]],"date-time":"2026-10-17T06:56:21Z","timestamp":1792220181000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["What does a Rejection Mean? A Retrospective Audit of a Registered Trading-rule Archive"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-3612-7703","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shuo","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"ref1","first-page":"193","article-title":"Statistical nonsigni icance in empirical economics","volume":"2","author":"A Abadie","year":"2020","journal-title":"American Economic Review: Insights"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1257\/pandp.20221065","article-title":"Inference for losers","volume":"112","author":"I Andrews","year":"2022","journal-title":"AEA Papers and Proceedings"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"305","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjad043","article-title":"Inference on winners","volume":"139","author":"I Andrews","year":"2024","journal-title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.3905\/jpm.2014.40.5.094","article-title":"The de lated Sharpe ratio: Correcting for selection bias, backtest over itting, and non-normality","volume":"40","author":"D H Bailey","year":"2014","journal-title":"The Journal of Portfolio Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2012.06.001","article-title":"Technical trading revisited: False discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs","volume":"106","author":"P Bajgrowicz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Financial Economics"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1561\/104.00000112","article-title":"Open source cross-sectional asset pricing","volume":"11","author":"A Y Chen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Critical Finance Review"},{"issue":"6203","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1502","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1255484","article-title":"Publication bias in the social sciences: Unlocking the ile drawer","volume":"345","author":"A Franco","year":"2014","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref8","first-page":"13","volume":"42","author":"C R Harvey","year":"2015","journal-title":"Backtesting. 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