{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T14:37:56Z","timestamp":1792852676060,"version":"4.5.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>We analyze asset performance across inflation and growth states using 107 years of monthly US data. We construct a systematic three-regime taxonomy classifying each month as Overheating, Stagflation, or Contained (our baseline) using real-time inflation and growth signals, unlike prior work relying on fixed inflation thresholds or ex-post NBER recession dating. Both high-inflation states produce poor returns: the 60\/40 portfolio earns-1.3% p.a. in real terms in Overheating and-0.2% in Stagflation, versus 9.0% in Contained periods. We also condition on whether inflation is accelerating or decelerating. Under our six-month specification, accelerating inflation in Overheating is associated with materially weaker equity and bond returns than decelerating inflation, though this is sensitive to the measurement horizon. In Stagflation, these differences are generally less pronounced. This contrast may partly reflect timing: by the time Stagflation is confirmed, some deterioration may already be priced in and markets may be anticipating recovery.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7662619","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T14:24:48Z","timestamp":1792851888000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Stagflation and Asset Management"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"given":"Panashe","family":"Bera","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2397-652X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Campbell R.","family":"Harvey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristina","family":"Hooper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T14:24:48Z","timestamp":1792851888000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7662619"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7662619","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}