{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T07:30:43Z","timestamp":1793345443293,"version":"4.5.0"},"posted":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"group-title":"SSRN","reference-count":0,"publisher":"Elsevier BV","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.uspto.gov\/ip-policy\/copyright-policy\/copyright-basics"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>A hedger can keep a fixed hedge ratio current in two ways, by re-estimating it all the time or by watching it and refitting when a monitor signals a change. The second is the natural answer to structural change. On daily hedges since 1930 we find that it does not pay. Over 428 four-year blocks of 39 relationships, under a design fixed before any loss was computed (two of its 41 relationships are omitted here for licensing reasons), monitoring costs 0.049 of the frozen hedge's loss against a 250-day rolling window, three times the window's own estimation cost. The ranking holds in all five further samples fixed before their data were downloaded (1,407 relationship-blocks), significantly in four. Neither the monitor nor its fastest form beats the best of rolling windows, a tuned discount and a two-component Kalman filter in any of 21 families. A monitor, we argue, is a window that stops and restarts. While it waits for evidence its hedge goes stale, and its alarms find the right periods but not the right days. Each refit then restarts the estimate, which pays only if the slope drifts faster than these slopes do over a year or more. A faster monitor narrows the gap without closing it, and even exchange-rate regime changes dated by monetary history favour the window.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.7668278","type":"posted-content","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T06:33:59Z","timestamp":1793342039000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Monitoring Does Not Pay: Why Re-Estimating a Hedge Beats Watching It"],"prefix":"10.2139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-3301-6526","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Juntong","family":"Lu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"78","container-title":[],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T06:33:59Z","timestamp":1793342039000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ssrn.com\/abstract=7668278"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"references-count":0,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7668278","relation":{},"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"subtype":"preprint"}}