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Trend analysis was performed using Mann\u2013Kendall test and Sen's estimator. The output of these models was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator method for the representative concentration pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A model averaging technique was employed to create an ensemble model. The results showed that the average precipitation of the basin will decrease by the end of the 21st century. The projection also showed that the consecutive dry day's index increases based on both scenarios. However, other indices (maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, very wet days, consecutive wet days, simple daily intensity index, and wet-day precipitation) are reduced compared to the base period. Moreover, the slope of significant trends in the RCP8.5 is greater and more severe than that in RCP4.5.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2166\/wcc.2023.447","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]],"date-time":"2023-07-12T10:08:26Z","timestamp":1689156506000},"page":"2564-2582","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/iwapcrossmarkpolicypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Projected changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Lake Urmia basin in Iran"],"prefix":"10.2166","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1005-5051","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Khadijeh","family":"Javan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"a Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran"},{"name":"b Urmia Lake Research Institute, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alireza","family":"Movaghari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"a Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran"},{"name":"b Urmia Lake Research Institute, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8460-4869","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeong-Soo","family":"Park","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"c Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"945","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"key-10.2166\/wcc.2023.447-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2166\/wcc.2021.055"},{"key":"key-10.2166\/wcc.2023.447-2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2020.125586"},{"key":"key-10.2166\/wcc.2023.447-3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s13762-012-0031-0"},{"key":"key-10.2166\/wcc.2023.447-4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jglr.2014.12.007"},{"key":"key-10.2166\/wcc.2023.447-5","article-title":"Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation","volume":"111","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. 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