{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T07:03:10Z","timestamp":1790838190930,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"IWA Publishing","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]],"date-time":"2022-03-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1648512000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"ClimAQua","award":["2017-01413"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017-01413"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001728","name":"Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SA2015-6274"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SA2015-6274"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001728","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["iwaponline.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>South African rivers generally receive waste from inadequate wastewater infrastructure, mines, and farming activities, among others. The uMsunduzi River in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is among these recipients with recorded poor to very poor water quality. To identify parts of the uMsunduzi River that are polluted by Cryptosporidium and Escherichia coli (E. coli), this study mapped out pollutants emanating from point and non-point sources using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Streamflow calibration in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment showed good performance with R2 of 0.64 and 0.58, respectively. SWAT water quality output data were combined with a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to understand the microbial health implications for people using river water for drinking, recreational swimming, and non-competitive canoeing. QMRA results for Cryptosporidium and pathogenic E. coli showed that the probability of infection for most users exceeds the acceptable level for drinking and recreation as outlined in the South African water quality guidelines, and by the World Health Organization (WHO). The results of this study can be used as a baseline to assess the economic and health implications of different management plans, resulting in better-informed, cost-effective, and impactful decision-making.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2166\/wh.2022.266","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]],"date-time":"2022-03-29T14:38:56Z","timestamp":1648564736000},"page":"641-656","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/iwapcrossmarkpolicypage","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Water quality modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment for uMsunduzi River in South Africa"],"prefix":"10.2166","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5379-2580","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zesizwe","family":"Ngubane","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, Durban University of Technology, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8864-5799","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Viktor","family":"Bergion","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bloodless","family":"Dzwairo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, Durban University of Technology, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karin","family":"Troell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Microbiology, National Veterinary Institute, Uppsala, Sweden"},{"name":"Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isaac Dennis","family":"Amoah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Water and Wastewater Technology, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thor Axel","family":"Stenstr\u00f6m","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Water and Wastewater Technology, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5715-8007","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ekaterina","family":"Sokolova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden"},{"name":"Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"945","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Modelling trends in hydrological modelling","volume":"4","year":"2019","journal-title":"Jurnal Teknologi (Sciences and Engineering)"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C2","unstructured":"Abrahamsson\n            J. L.\n          , AnskerJ. & HeinickeG.2009MRA \u2013 A Model for Swedish Waterworks. Stockholm, Sweden."},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C3","unstructured":"Adeyemo\n            F. E.\n          \n          2019\n          Occurrence and Variations of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in Wastewater Treatment and Receiving River Basins. Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa."},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C4","unstructured":"Araya\n            P.\n          , HugJ., JoyG., OschmannF. & RubisteinS.2016The Impact of Water and Sanitation on Diarrhoeal Disease Burden and Over-Consumption of Antibiotics. London."},{"issue":"4","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C5","first-page":"1491","article-title":"SWAT: model use, calibration, and validation","volume":"55","year":"2012","journal-title":"2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers"},{"issue":"2","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.13031\/2013.26840","article-title":"Modeling flow and pollutant transport in a Karst watershed with SWAT","volume":"52","year":"2009","journal-title":"Transactions of the ASABE"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2016.11.011","article-title":"Hydrological modelling in a drinking water catchment area as a means of evaluating pathogen risk reduction","volume":"544","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Hydrology"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C8","article-title":"Accounting for unexpected risk events in drinking water systems","year":"2020","journal-title":"Exposure and Health"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C9","first-page":"467","article-title":"Combining modeling and monitoring to study fecal contamination in a small rural catchment","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Water and Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"232","DOI":"10.1080\/10807039.2012.701983","article-title":"Modeling of pathogen indicator organisms in a small-scale agricultural catchment using SWAT","volume":"19","year":"2013","journal-title":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C11","volume-title":"Linking Land Use to Water Quality for Effective Water Resource and Ecosystem Management","year":"2013"},{"issue":"45","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C12","first-page":"2020","article-title":"Water ingestion during water recreation 5","volume":"5","year":"2011","journal-title":"Water Research"},{"issue":"4","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C13","article-title":"Water ingestion during swimming activities in a pool: a pilot study","volume":"04","year":"2006","journal-title":"Journal of Water and Health"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dungeni\n            M.\n           & MombaM. N. B.2010The Abundance of Cryptosporidium and Giardia spp. in Treated Effluents Produced by Four Wastewater Treatment Plants in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. Pretoria, South Africa.","DOI":"10.4314\/wsa.v36i4.58413"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C15","volume-title":"South African Water Quality Guidelines: Volume 1 Domestic Use","author":"DWAF","year":"1996","edition":"2nd edn"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C16","volume-title":"Water Quality Guidelines: Volume 2 Recreational Use","author":"DWAF","year":"1996","edition":"2nd edn"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"FAO\n          2015\n          World Reference Base for Soil Resources. Nature Nanotechnology. Viale delle Terme di Caracalla. doi:10.1038\/nnano.2009.216.","DOI":"10.1038\/nnano.2009.216"},{"issue":"9","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6551","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-013-1710-1","article-title":"Is the microbiological quality of the Msunduzi River (KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) suitable for domestic, recreational, and agricultural purposes?","volume":"20","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environmental Science and Pollution Research"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C19","first-page":"153","article-title":"Development of a dose-response relationship for Escherichia coli O157:H7","volume":"1748","year":"2000","journal-title":"International Journal of Food Microbiology"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C20","volume-title":"Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment","year":"2014","edition":"2nd edn"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C21","unstructured":"Hay\n            D.\n          \n          2017\n          Our Water Our Future: Securing the Water Resources of the uMngeni River Basin. Pietermaritzburg, South Africa."},{"issue":"5","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1279","DOI":"10.1080\/10807039.2018.1487276","article-title":"Human and ecological risk assessment: an international modeling Escherichia coli fate and transport in the Kabul River basin using SWAT","volume":"25","year":"2019","journal-title":"Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C23","first-page":"57","article-title":"Ubiquity of the water-borne pathogens, Cryptosporidium and Giardia, in KwaZulu-Natal populations","volume":"27","year":"2001","journal-title":"Water SA"},{"issue":"8","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2669","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph9082669","article-title":"Microbial monitoring of surface water in South Africa: an overview","volume":"9","year":"2012","journal-title":"International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C25","first-page":"139","article-title":"Human infective potential of Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia duodenalis and Enterocytozoon bieneusi in urban wastewater treatment plant effluents","volume":"176","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Water Health"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C26","article-title":"Modelling potential hydrological returns from investing in ecological infrastructure: case studies from the Baviaanskloof-Tsitsikamma and uMngeni catchments, South Africa","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecosystem Services"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C27","first-page":"1","article-title":"Quantitative microbial risk assessment for waterborne pathogens in a wastewater treatment plant and its receiving surface water body","volume":"20","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Microbiology"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C28","unstructured":"Mema\n            V.\n          \n          2010\n          Impact of Poorly Maintained Wastewater and Sewage Treatment Plants: Lessons from South Africa. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria."},{"issue":"3","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C29","first-page":"885","article-title":"Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations","volume":"50","year":"2007","journal-title":"Transactions of the ASABE 2007 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers"},{"issue":"13","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3085","DOI":"10.1016\/S0043-1354(00)00597-2","article-title":"The occurrence of E. coli O157:H7 in South African water sources intended for direct and indirect human consumption","volume":"35","year":"2001","journal-title":"Water Research"},{"issue":"9963","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C31","first-page":"117","article-title":"Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990 -2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013","volume":"385","year":"2013","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"6","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C32","first-page":"108","article-title":"Cryptosporidiosis in Southern Africa: review of prevalence and molecular epidemiology of a neglected disease","volume":"11","year":"2018","journal-title":"Annals of Tropical Medicine and Public Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiph.2016.11.012","article-title":"Human enteric bacteria and viruses in five wastewater treatment plants in the Eastern Cape, South Africa","volume":"10","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Infection and Public Health"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C34","unstructured":"Ramnath\n            A.\n          , MeierK. & MjwaraS.2019Infrastructure Master Plan 2019 Volume 7: Wastewater. 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A review of the evidence","volume":"7","year":"2020","journal-title":"Frontiers in Veterinary Science"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C37","first-page":"56","article-title":"A SWAT\/microbial sub-model for predicting pathogen loadings in surface and groundwater at watershed and basin scales","volume-title":"Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Environmental Regulations: Proceedings of the March 11\u201313, 2002 Conference","author":"Saleh","year":"2002"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C38","first-page":"1318","article-title":"Waterborne outbreak of gastroenteritis on the KwaZulu-Natal Coast, South Africa, December 2016\/January 2017","volume":"146","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epi"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C39","first-page":"555","article-title":"Burden of disease from cryptosporidiosis","year":"2012","journal-title":"Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"4","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.2166\/wh.2009.101","article-title":"Comparing probabilistic microbial risk assessments for drinking water against daily rather than annualised infection probability targets","volume":"07","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of Water and Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1561","DOI":"10.2166\/wst.2010.839","article-title":"Practical applications of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for water safety plans","volume":"61","year":"2010","journal-title":"Water Science & Technology"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"STATSSA\n          2011\n          Census 2011 Summary, SA Library Cataloguing. doi:10.1136\/bmj.286.6372.1195.","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.286.6372.1195"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C43","first-page":"301","article-title":"Assessment of microbial infection risks posed by ingestion of water during domestic water use and full-contact recreation in a mid-Southern African region","volume":"50","year":"2001","journal-title":"Water Science and Technology"},{"issue":"12","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3665","DOI":"10.1016\/j.watres.2011.04.013","article-title":"Modelling Cryptosporidium oocysts transport in small ungauged agricultural catchments","volume":"45","year":"2011","journal-title":"Water Research"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1111\/0272-4332.00014","article-title":"Cryptosporidium dose response studies: variation between isolates","volume":"22","year":"2002","journal-title":"Risk Analysis"},{"issue":"2","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"401","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0272-4332.2004.00441.x","article-title":"Dose response for infection by Escherichia coli O157:H7 from outbreak data","volume":"24","year":"2004","journal-title":"Risk Analysis"},{"issue":"15","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8663","DOI":"10.1021\/acs.est.7b00452","article-title":"Global Cryptosporidium loads from livestock manure","volume":"51","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environmental Science and Technology"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C48","volume-title":"Microbial Risk Assessment and its Implications for Risk Management in Urban Water Systems","year":"2004"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C49","unstructured":"WRC\n          2002\n          State of the River Report \u2013 uMngeni River and Neighbouring Rivers and Streams. Pretoria, South Africa. Available from: http:\/\/www.csir.co.za\/rhp\/%0Ahttp:\/\/www.dwa.gov.za\/IWQS\/rhp\/state_of_rivers\/state_of_umngeni_02\/umngeni_02.pdf"},{"issue":"1","key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C50","first-page":"1","article-title":"Review of watershed-scale water quality and nonpoint source pollution models","volume":"10","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geosciences (Switzerland)"},{"key":"2022042814535706200_JWH-D-21-00266C51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104703","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2019.03.051","article-title":"Synergy between quantitative microbial source tracking (qMST) and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA): a review and prospectus","volume":"130","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environment International"}],"container-title":["Journal of Water and Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/iwaponline.com\/jwh\/article-pdf\/20\/4\/641\/1044297\/jwh0200641.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iwaponline.com\/jwh\/article-pdf\/20\/4\/641\/1044297\/jwh0200641.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,28]],"date-time":"2022-04-28T20:02:05Z","timestamp":1651176125000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/iwaponline.com\/jwh\/article\/20\/4\/641\/87909\/Water-quality-modelling-and-quantitative-microbial"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2166\/wh.2022.266","relation":{},"ISSN":["1477-8920","1996-7829"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1477-8920","type":"print"},{"value":"1996-7829","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,29]]}}}