{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,2]],"date-time":"2025-03-02T06:03:02Z","timestamp":1740895382372,"version":"3.38.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,29]],"date-time":"2008-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1212019200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["New Solut"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p> The proportion of slaughtered cattle tested for BSE is much smaller in the U.S. than in Europe and Japan, leaving the U.S. heavily dependent on statistical models to estimate both the current prevalence and the spread of BSE. We examine the models relied on by USDA, finding that the prevalence model provides only a rough estimate, due to limited data availability. Reassuring forecasts from the model of the spread of BSE depend on the arbitrary constraint that worst-case values are assumed by only one of 17 key parameters at a time. In three of the six published scenarios with multiple worst-case parameter values, there is at least a 25% probability that BSE will spread rapidly. In public policy terms, reliance on potentially flawed models can be seen as a gamble that no serious BSE outbreak will occur. Statistical modeling at this level of abstraction, with its myriad, compound uncertainties, is no substitute for precautionary policies to protect public health against the threat of epidemics such as BSE. <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2190\/ns.18.2.e","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,30]],"date-time":"2008-05-30T01:04:23Z","timestamp":1212109463000},"page":"145-156","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Mad Cows and Computer Models: The U.S. Response to BSE"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Frank","family":"Ackerman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Wendy A.","family":"Johnecheck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-NS.18.2.e","unstructured":"General Accounting Office (2002). Mad Cow Disease: Improvements in the Animal Feed Ban and Other Regulatory Areas Would Strengthen Other U.S. Prevention Efforts, Washington D.C."},{"issue":"2","key":"bibr2-NS.18.2.e","first-page":"289","volume":"57","author":"McGarity T. O.","year":"2005","journal-title":"Administrative Law Review"},{"key":"bibr3-NS.18.2.e","unstructured":"EU DG Agriculture and Rural Development (2006). \u201cAgriculture in the European Union: Statistical and Economic Information 2005.\u201d from http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/comm\/agriculture\/agrista\/2005\/table_en\/index.htm"},{"key":"bibr4-NS.18.2.e","unstructured":"EU DG Health and Consumer Protection. (2005). \u201cReport on the Monitoring and Testing of Ruminants for the Presence of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) in the EU in 2004.\u201d from http:\/\/ec.europa.comm\/food\/food\/biosafety\/bse\/annual_report_tse2004_en.pdf"},{"key":"bibr5-NS.18.2.e","unstructured":"USDA. (2005). \u201cStatistical Highlights of US Agriculture 2004 & 2005.\u201d From http:\/\/www.usda.gov\/nass\/pubs\/stathigh\/s005\/2005Stat.PDF"},{"key":"bibr6-NS.18.2.e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2005.00619.x"},{"volume-title":"Evaluation of the Potential for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in the United States: Report to the US Department of Agriculture","year":"2001","author":"Cohen J.","key":"bibr7-NS.18.2.e"},{"volume-title":"Evaluation of the Potential for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in the United States: Report to the US Department of Agriculture (revised October 2003)","year":"2003","author":"Cohen J.","key":"bibr8-NS.18.2.e"},{"volume-title":"An Estimate of the Prevalence of BSE in the United States","year":"2006","author":"USDA APHIS","key":"bibr9-NS.18.2.e"},{"key":"bibr10-NS.18.2.e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1999.0599"},{"volume-title":"Review of the Potential for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in the United States","year":"2002","author":"Research Triangle Institute","key":"bibr11-NS.18.2.e"},{"volume-title":"Harvard Risk Assessment of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Update: Phase IA","year":"2005","author":"Cohen J. T.","key":"bibr12-NS.18.2.e"},{"key":"bibr13-NS.18.2.e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2005.00634.x"},{"key":"bibr14-NS.18.2.e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3894(00)00228-4"},{"key":"bibr15-NS.18.2.e","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2004.01.003"},{"key":"bibr16-NS.18.2.e","unstructured":"USDA Economic Research Services (2006). \u201cBackground Statistics: U.S. Beef and Cattle Industry,\u201d from http:\/\/www.ers.usda.gov\/news\/BSECoverage.htm"},{"volume-title":"Comments on USDA bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) surveillance plan","year":"2004","author":"Cohen J. 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