{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T17:58:54Z","timestamp":1782842334544,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":71,"publisher":"JMIR Publications Inc.","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["JMIR Public Health Surveill"],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>SARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>With a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Weekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Ecological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission.  Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.2196\/24696","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,1]],"date-time":"2021-02-01T11:14:43Z","timestamp":1612178083000},"page":"e24696","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The Relationship Between the Global Burden of Influenza From 2017 to 2019 and COVID-19: Descriptive Epidemiological Assessment"],"prefix":"10.2196","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5482-2419","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefan David","family":"Baral","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9858-5953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Katherine Blair","family":"Rucinski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7954-1736","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jean Olivier","family":"Twahirwa Rwema","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9596-2418","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amrita","family":"Rao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9597-7348","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Neia","family":"Prata Menezes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5796-3164","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daouda","family":"Diouf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8074-4450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adeeba","family":"Kamarulzaman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9387-0432","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nancy","family":"Phaswana-Mafuya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8492-5470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sharmistha","family":"Mishra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1010","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"Weekly epidemiological update - 29 December 2020World Health Organization20202021-01-01https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/m\/item\/weekly-epidemiological-update---29-december-2020"},{"key":"ref2","unstructured":"DevlinHRegional differences in Covid-19 transmission rate emerge in EnglandThe Guardian202005152021-01-01https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/may\/15\/regional-differences-in-covid-19-transmission-rate-emerge-in-england"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6915e4"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2021.01.07.21249419"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-018-5446-1"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/jebm.12381"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(20)30134-X"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(09)70069-6"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30195-X"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2020.2306"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2010.0686"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2018.0298"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0021481"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-virology-012420-022445"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0906453"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2018.1462639"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1003194"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0153003"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12372"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-019-0618-5"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2020.05.003"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2009.188029"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-2247"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213-2600(20)30228-9"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7196\/SAMJ.2020.v110i7.14935"},{"key":"ref26","unstructured":"CollynsDPeru\u2019s coronavirus response was \u2018right on time\u2019 \u2013 so why isn't it working?The Guardian202005202021-01-01https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/global-development\/2020\/may\/20\/peru-coronavirus-lockdown-new-cases"},{"key":"ref27","unstructured":"Weekly respiratory pathogens surveillance report - week 23National Institute for Communicable Diseases20202021-01-01https:\/\/www.nicd.ac.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/Weekly-Pathogens-surveillance-report-week-23.pdf"},{"key":"ref28","unstructured":"National COVID-19 daily reportNational Institute for Communicable Diseases202006152021-01-01https:\/\/www.nicd.ac.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/COVID19-Daily-Report-National-Public-15June2020.pdf"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30090-6"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.01680-06"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ina.12267"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-8198.2010.00343.x"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.03544-13"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.200920"},{"key":"ref35","author":"Xu, R","journal-title":"medRxiv."},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.11834"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.26.20044420"},{"key":"ref38","author":"Ficetola, GF","journal-title":"medRxiv."},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4414\/smw.2020.20224"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"CohenJWhy do dozens of diseases wax and wane with the seasons\u2014and will COVID-19?Science202003132021-01-01https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/03\/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb7234"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2020.05.015"},{"key":"ref42","unstructured":"RourkeADavidsonHHong Kong imposes restrictions as Covid-19 cases rise across AsiaThe Guardian202007272021-01-01https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/jul\/27\/global-report-china-reports-biggest-covid-19-surge-in-months-as-australia-sets-new-infections-record"},{"key":"ref43","unstructured":"PackhamCAustralia suffers 'disturbing' COVID-19 surge, state curbs wedding partiesReuters202007162021-01-01https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-australia-idUSKCN24I08U"},{"key":"ref44","unstructured":"PackhamCAustralia tightens restrictions as COVID-19 cases top 10,000Reuters20202021-01-01https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-health-coronavirus-australia-idUSKCN24F0AD"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1503\/cmaj.201112"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjebm-2020-111426"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2020-002913"},{"key":"ref48","first-page":"117","author":"Hansson, E","year":"2020","journal-title":"L\u00e4kartidningen"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12757"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12325-020-01324-y"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jvacx.2020.100054"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2020.01.029"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11280-018-0608-8"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1753-6405.12944"},{"key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/21645515.2017.1413518"},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.06.29.174888"},{"key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/14760584.2016.1164046"},{"key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.06.21.20132449"},{"key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2020.04.048"},{"key":"ref60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13256-019-2028-5"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiy614"},{"key":"ref62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11926-007-0049-3"},{"key":"ref63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.legalmed.2016.01.005"},{"key":"ref64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v11080762"},{"key":"ref65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1183\/13993003.01494-2020"},{"key":"ref66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.12.21.20248640"},{"key":"ref67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6937a6"},{"key":"ref68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.04.021"},{"key":"ref69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1586\/eri.12.49"},{"key":"ref70","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention20202021-01-01https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/php\/contact-tracing\/contact-tracing-plan\/overview.html"},{"key":"ref71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajic.2020.05.007"}],"container-title":["JMIR Public Health and Surveillance"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/publichealth.jmir.org\/2021\/3\/e24696","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T17:35:50Z","timestamp":1782840950000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/publichealth.jmir.org\/2021\/3\/e24696"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,2]]},"references-count":71,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2196\/24696","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.06.18.20134346","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.2196\/preprints.24696","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2369-2960"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2369-2960","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,2]]}}}