{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T14:46:21Z","timestamp":1786373181472,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"12","content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["CJASN"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design, setting, participants, &amp; measurements<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002\u20132019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR &lt;15 ml\/min per 1.73 m\n                      <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                      ) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2\u201310.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with\n                      <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">c<\/jats:italic>\n                      statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Podcast<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This article contains a podcast at https:\/\/dts.podtrac.com\/redirect.mp3\/www.asn-online.org\/media\/podcast\/CJASN\/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.2215\/cjn.05020422","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,4]],"date-time":"2022-11-04T11:35:25Z","timestamp":1667561725000},"page":"1783-1791","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes"],"prefix":"10.2215","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Helena Bleken","family":"\u00d8stergaard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephanie H.","family":"Read","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scottish Diabetes Research Network Epidemiology Group, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United 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A.N.","family":"Dorresteijn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Westerink","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Frank L.J.","family":"Visseren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sarah H.","family":"Wild","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scottish Diabetes Research Network Epidemiology Group, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United 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