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In particular, for brickwork random quantum circuits on <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><\/mml:math> qubits of depth <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>d<\/mml:mi><\/mml:math>, we show three main results:\u2013 At super logarithmic circuit depth <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>d<\/mml:mi><mml:mo>=<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>&amp;#x03C9;<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>log<\/mml:mi><mml:mo>&amp;#x2061;<\/mml:mo><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:math>, any learning algorithm requires super polynomially many queries to achieve a constant probability of success over the randomly drawn instance.\u2013 There exists a <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>d<\/mml:mi><mml:mo>=<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>O<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:math>, such that any learning algorithm requires <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">&amp;#x03A9;<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><\/mml:msup><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:math> queries to achieve a <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>O<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:mo>&amp;#x2212;<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:math> probability of success over the randomly drawn instance.\u2013 At infinite circuit depth <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mi>d<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">&amp;#x2192;<\/mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">&amp;#x221E;<\/mml:mi><\/mml:math>, any learning algorithm requires <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">&amp;#x03A9;<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><\/mml:math> many queries to achieve a <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:mo>&amp;#x2212;<\/mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:mi mathvariant=\"normal\">&amp;#x03A9;<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><\/mml:math> probability of success over the randomly drawn instance.As an auxiliary result of independent interest, we show that the output distribution of a brickwork random quantum circuit is constantly far from any fixed distribution in total variation distance with probability <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mml:mn>1<\/mml:mn><mml:mo>&amp;#x2212;<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>O<\/mml:mi><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">(<\/mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn>2<\/mml:mn><mml:mrow class=\"MJX-TeXAtom-ORD\"><mml:mo>&amp;#x2212;<\/mml:mo><mml:mi>n<\/mml:mi><\/mml:mrow><\/mml:msup><mml:mo stretchy=\"false\">)<\/mml:mo><\/mml:math>, which confirms a variant of a conjecture by Aaronson and Chen.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.22331\/q-2025-10-13-1883","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T10:33:31Z","timestamp":1760351611000},"page":"1883","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.22331\/q-crossmark-policy-page","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["On the average-case complexity of 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