{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T14:37:04Z","timestamp":1791211024644,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":66,"publisher":"The Angle Orthodontist (EH Angle Education & Research Foundation)","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"st1\">\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To develop a facial growth prediction model incorporating individual skeletal and soft tissue characteristics.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"st2\">\n                    <jats:title>Materials and Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Serial longitudinal lateral cephalograms were collected from 303 children (166 girls and 137 boys), who had never undergone orthodontic treatment. A growth prediction model was devised by applying the multivariate partial least squares (PLS) algorithm, with 161 predictor variables. Response variables comprised 78 lateral cephalogram landmarks. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to investigate factors influencing growth prediction errors.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"st3\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the leave-one-out cross-validation method, a PLS model with 30 components was developed. Younger age at prediction resulted in greater prediction error (0.03 mm\/y). Further, prediction error increased in proportion to the growth prediction interval (0.24 mm\/y). Girls, subjects with Class II malocclusion, growth in the vertical direction, skeletal landmarks, and landmarks on the maxilla were associated with more accurate prediction results than boys, subjects with Class I or III malocclusion, growth in the anteroposterior direction, soft tissue landmarks, and landmarks on the mandible, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"st4\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The prediction error of the prediction model was proportional to the remaining growth potential. PLS growth prediction seems to be a versatile approach that can incorporate large numbers of predictor variables to predict numerous landmarks for an individual subject.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.2319\/110121-807.1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,18]],"date-time":"2022-08-18T12:18:33Z","timestamp":1660825113000},"page":"705-713","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Evaluation of an individualized facial growth prediction model based on the multivariate partial least squares method"],"prefix":"10.2319","volume":"92","author":[{"given":"Jun-Ho","family":"Moon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Min-Gyu","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hye-Won","family":"Hwang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sung Joo","family":"Cho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard E.","family":"Donatelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shin-Jae","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1164","reference":[{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b01","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"384","article-title":"Genetic and environmental components of vertical growth in mono- and dizygotic twins up to 15-18 years of age","volume":"91","author":"Hersberger-Zurfluh","year":"2021","unstructured":"Hersberger-Zurfluh\n              MA\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPapageorgiouSN,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tMotroM,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tKantarciA,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tWillLA,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tEliadesT.\n          Genetic and environmental components of vertical growth in mono- and dizygotic twins up to 15-18 years of age.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle 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       Predicting the mandibular growth spurt.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2021;91:307\u2013312."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b19","series-title":"Am J Orthod","first-page":"57","article-title":"New norms for the mesh diagram analysis","volume":"69","author":"Moorrees","year":"1976","unstructured":"Moorrees\n              CF\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tuan VenrooijME,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLebretLM,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tet al.\n          New norms for the mesh diagram analysis.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t1976;69:57\u201371."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b20","series-title":"Am J Orthod","first-page":"249","article-title":"A cephalometric template: its construction and clinical significance","volume":"49","author":"Harris","year":"1963","unstructured":"Harris\n              JE\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tJohnstonL,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tMoyersRE.\n          A cephalometric template: its construction and clinical significance.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t1963;49:249\u2013263."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b21","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"14","article-title":"Planning treatment on the basis of the facial pattern and an estimate of its growth","volume":"27","author":"Ricketts","year":"1957","unstructured":"Ricketts\n              RM.\n            \n          \n          Planning treatment on the basis of the facial pattern and an estimate of its growth.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t1957;27:14\u201337."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b22","series-title":"Am J Orthod","first-page":"264","article-title":"A proposed multivariate model for prediction of facial growth","volume":"75","author":"Bhatia","year":"1979","unstructured":"Bhatia\n              SN\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tWrightGW,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeightonBC.\n          A proposed multivariate model for prediction of facial growth.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t1979;75:264\u2013281."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b23","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"910","article-title":"Predicting soft tissue changes after orthognathic surgery: the sparse partial least squares method","volume":"89","author":"Suh","year":"2019","unstructured":"Suh\n              HY\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeHJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeYS,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tEoSH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDonatelliRE,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          Predicting soft tissue changes after orthognathic surgery: the sparse partial least squares method.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2019;89:910\u2013916."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b24","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"597","article-title":"Testing a better method of predicting postsurgery soft tissue response in Class II patients: a prospective study and validity assessment","volume":"85","author":"Yoon","year":"2015","unstructured":"Yoon\n              KS\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeHJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDonatelliRE.\n          Testing a better method of predicting postsurgery soft tissue response in Class II patients: a prospective study and validity assessment.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2015;85:597\u2013603."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b25","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"724","article-title":"A more accurate soft-tissue prediction model for Class III 2-jaw surgeries","volume":"146","author":"Lee","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lee\n              YS\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSuhHY,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDonatelliRE.\n          A more accurate soft-tissue prediction model for Class III 2-jaw surgeries.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop.\n\t\t\t\t\t2014;146:724\u2013733."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b26","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"322","article-title":"A better statistical method of predicting postsurgery soft tissue response in Class II patients","volume":"84","author":"Lee","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lee\n              HJ\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSuhHY,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeYS,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tet al.\n          A better statistical method of predicting postsurgery soft tissue response in Class II patients.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2014;84:322\u2013328."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b27","series-title":"J Oral Maxillofac Surg","first-page":"e553","article-title":"A more accurate method of predicting soft tissue changes after mandibular setback surgery","volume":"70","author":"Suh","year":"2012","unstructured":"Suh\n              HY\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeYS,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tet al.\n          A more accurate method of predicting soft tissue changes after mandibular setback surgery.\n\t\t\t\t\tJ Oral Maxillofac Surg.\n\t\t\t\t\t2012;70:e553\u2013562."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b28","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"269","article-title":"Modern trends in Class III orthognathic treatment: a time series analysis","volume":"87","author":"Lee","year":"2017","unstructured":"Lee\n              CH\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tParkHH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSeoBM,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          Modern trends in Class III orthognathic treatment: a time series analysis.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2017;87:269\u2013278."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b29","series-title":"Korean J Orthod","first-page":"298","article-title":"Time series analysis of patients seeking orthodontic treatment at Seoul National University Dental Hospital over the past decade","volume":"47","author":"Lim","year":"2017","unstructured":"Lim\n              HW\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tParkJH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tParkHH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          Time series analysis of patients seeking orthodontic treatment at Seoul National University Dental Hospital over the past decade.\n\t\t\t\t\tKorean J Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2017;47:298\u2013305."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b30","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"272","article-title":"How to test validity in orthodontic research: a mixed dentition analysis example","volume":"147","author":"Donatelli","year":"2015","unstructured":"Donatelli\n              RE\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          How to test validity in orthodontic research: a mixed dentition analysis example.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop.\n\t\t\t\t\t2015;147:272\u2013279."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b31","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"156","article-title":"How to report reliability in orthodontic research: Part 1","volume":"144","author":"Donatelli","year":"2013","unstructured":"Donatelli\n              RE\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          How to report reliability in orthodontic research: Part 1.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop.\n\t\t\t\t\t2013;144:156\u2013161."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b32","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"315","article-title":"How to report reliability in orthodontic research: Part 2","volume":"144","author":"Donatelli","year":"2013","unstructured":"Donatelli\n              RE\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ.\n          How to report reliability in orthodontic research: Part 2.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop.\n\t\t\t\t\t2013;144:315\u2013318."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b33","series-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2022","unstructured":"R Core Team.\n          \n            R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing\n          .\n\t\t\t\t\tVienna, Austria:\n\t\t\t\t\tR Foundation for Statistical Computing;2022."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b01","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"384","article-title":"Genetic and environmental components of vertical growth in mono- and dizygotic twins up to 15-18 years of age","volume":"91","author":"Hersberger-Zurfluh","year":"2021","unstructured":"Hersberger-Zurfluh\n              MA\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPapageorgiouSN,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tMotroM,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tKantarciA,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tWillLA,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tEliadesT.\n          Genetic and environmental components of vertical growth in mono- and dizygotic twins up to 15-18 years of age.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2021;91:384\u2013390."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b02","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"45","article-title":"Development and testing of multilevel models for longitudinal craniofacial growth prediction","volume":"128","author":"Chvatal","year":"2005","unstructured":"Chvatal\n              BA\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tBehrentsRG,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tCeenRF,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tBuschangPH.\n          Development and testing of multilevel models for longitudinal craniofacial growth prediction.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop.\n\t\t\t\t\t2005;128:45\u201356."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b03","series-title":"Angle Orthod","first-page":"11","article-title":"A theoretical analysis of longitudinal temporomandibular joint compressive stresses and mandibular growth","volume":"92","author":"Desai","year":"2022","unstructured":"Desai\n              RJ\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tIwasakiLR,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tKimSM,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLiuH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLiuY,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tNickelJC.\n          A theoretical analysis of longitudinal temporomandibular joint compressive stresses and mandibular growth.\n\t\t\t\t\tAngle Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t2022;92:11\u201317."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b04","series-title":"Am J Phys Anthropol","first-page":"37","article-title":"Geometric morphometric study of the regional variation of modern human craniofacial form","volume":"117","author":"Hennessy","year":"2002","unstructured":"Hennessy\n              RJ\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tStringerCB.\n          Geometric morphometric study of the regional variation of modern human craniofacial form.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Phys Anthropol.\n\t\t\t\t\t2002;117:37\u201348."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b05","series-title":"Am J Orthod","first-page":"253","article-title":"A simplified approach to prediction","volume":"67","author":"Johnston","year":"1975","unstructured":"Johnston\n              LE.\n            \n          \n          A simplified approach to prediction.\n\t\t\t\t\tAm J Orthod.\n\t\t\t\t\t1975;67:253\u2013257."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b06","series-title":"Ann Hum Biol","first-page":"509","article-title":"Early stature prediction method using stature growth parameters","volume":"35","author":"Lee","year":"2008","unstructured":"Lee\n              SJ\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tAnH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tAhnSJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tKimYH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tPakS,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeJW.\n          Early stature prediction method using stature growth parameters.\n\t\t\t\t\tAnn Hum Biol.\n\t\t\t\t\t2008;35:509\u2013517."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b07","series-title":"Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop","first-page":"679","article-title":"Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?","volume":"142","author":"Lee","year":"2012","unstructured":"Lee\n              YS\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLeeSJ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tAnH,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tDonatelliRE,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tKimSH.\n          Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?\n          \n            Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop\n          .\n\t\t\t\t\t2012;142:679\u2013689."},{"key":"i1945-7103-92-6-705-b08","series-title":"Eur J Orthod","first-page":"65","article-title":"Individual variation in growth directions expressed at the chin and the midface","volume":"2","author":"Lundstrom","year":"1980","unstructured":"Lundstrom\n              A\n            ,\n\t\t\t\t\t\tWoodsideDG.\n          Individual variation in growth directions expressed at the chin and the midface.\n\t\t\t\t\tEur J 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