{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T14:46:33Z","timestamp":1792161993075,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"American Diabetes Association","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785369600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.diabetesjournals.org\/journals\/pages\/license"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004326","name":"Bayer","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004326","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5T32-DK-065549-15"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5T32-DK-065549-15"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["GCRC M01RR00750"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GCRC M01RR00750"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["M01RR00036"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["M01RR00036"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P60 DK20542"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P60 DK20542"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P60 DK20579"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P60 DK20579"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["diabetesjournals.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>OBJECTIVE<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Predicting which individuals with mild dysglycemia will progress to frank type 2 diabetes is challenging. Identifying simple markers for impending worsening glucose can allow clinicians to target therapeutic interventions for those at highest risk. We aimed to determine which routine clinical measures herald near-term glycemic worsening in early type 2 diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Early Diabetes Intervention Program (EDIP) was a clinical trial in individuals with asymptomatic, screen-detected type 2 diabetes (HbA1c 6.3 \u00b1 0.63% [45 \u00b1 5 mmol\/mol]). We investigated the time course of fasting blood glucose (FBG), HbA1c, weight, and other clinical factors to determine predictors of glycemic worsening over the next year.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Of 219 participants, 62 (28.5%) progressed. Progressors had higher FBG than nonprogressors at baseline (130 vs. 118 mg\/dL [7.2 vs. 6.6 mmol\/L]; P &amp;lt; 0.001). FBG remained stable until the year of progression, when progressors exhibited a large 1-year rise (mean change 14.2 mg\/dL [0.79 mmol\/L]). Current FBG and antecedent year change in FBG were associated with progression (P &amp;lt; 0.01), although the magnitude of change was not clinically useful (0.19 mg\/dL [0.01 mmol\/L]). Neither current nor antecedent year change in HbA1c, weight, triglycerides, or HDL were associated with progression. In the year of glycemic worsening, rising glucose was strongly associated with a concurrent increase in weight (P &amp;lt; 0.001).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>CONCLUSIONS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Elevated FBG, but not HbA1c, identified individuals at risk for imminent glycemic worsening; the subsequent large rise in glucose was associated with a short-term increase in weight. Weight maintenance (even without weight loss) is associated with favorable glycemic patterns and may provide an actionable goal for managing early diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.2337\/doc25-0083","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T17:09:08Z","timestamp":1785431348000},"page":"786-793","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2337\/ada-journal-policies","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predictors of Glycemic Worsening in the Next Year in Adults With Screen-Detected Type 2 Diabetes"],"prefix":"10.2337","volume":"1","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7279-9470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rebecca","family":"Schneider Aguirre","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Indiana University 1 , Bloomington, IN"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamara S.","family":"Hannon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Indiana University 1 , Bloomington, IN"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert V.","family":"Considine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Indiana University 1 , Bloomington, IN"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yash","family":"Patel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Brown University 2 , Providence, RI"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M. Sue","family":"Kirkman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of North Carolina 3 , Chapel Hill, NC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8696-7500","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kieren J.","family":"Mather","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Indiana University 1 , Bloomington, IN"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1167","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026101610021297000_B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S16","DOI":"10.2337\/diabetes.53.suppl_3.S16","article-title":"Five stages of evolving beta-cell dysfunction during progression to diabetes","volume":"53","author":"Weir","year":"2004","journal-title":"Diabetes"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2279","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)60283-9","article-title":"Prediabetes: a high-risk state for diabetes development","volume":"379","author":"Tab\u00e1k","year":"2012","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S151","DOI":"10.2337\/dc09-S301","article-title":"Defining and characterizing the progression of type 2 diabetes","volume":"32","author":"Fonseca","year":"2009","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"d7163","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.d7163","article-title":"Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review","volume":"343","author":"Noble","year":"2011","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2215","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60619-X","article-title":"Trajectories of glycaemia, insulin sensitivity, and insulin secretion before diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: an analysis from the Whitehall II study","volume":"373","author":"Tab\u00e1k","year":"2009","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2095","DOI":"10.2337\/dc06-0061","article-title":"Treating postprandial hyperglycemia does not appear to delay progression of early type 2 diabetes: the Early Diabetes Intervention Program","volume":"29","author":"Kirkman","year":"2006","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"767","DOI":"10.1002\/dmrr.2553","article-title":"Profound defects in \u03b2-cell function in screen-detected type 2 diabetes are not improved with glucose-lowering treatment in the Early Diabetes Intervention Program (EDIP)","volume":"30","author":"Hannon","year":"2014","journal-title":"Diabetes Metab Res Rev"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7486493","DOI":"10.1155\/2018\/7486493","article-title":"HbA1c cutoff point of 5.9% better identifies high risk of progression to diabetes among Chinese adults: results from a retrospective cohort study","volume":"2018","author":"Liang","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Diabetes Res"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3920","DOI":"10.2337\/db13-0265","article-title":"Prevention of diabetes with pioglitazone in ACT NOW: physiologic correlates","volume":"62","author":"Defronzo","year":"2013","journal-title":"Diabetes"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e50419","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0050419","article-title":"Progression to type 2 diabetes in women with former gestational diabetes: time trajectories of metabolic parameters","volume":"7","author":"Tura","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1041808","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2022.1041808","article-title":"Are the determinants of the progression to type 2 diabetes and regression to normoglycemia in the populations with pre-diabetes the same?","volume":"13","author":"Alizadeh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Endocrinol (Lausanne)"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"36","DOI":"10.4239\/wjd.v1.i2.36","article-title":"Surrogate markers of insulin resistance: a review","volume":"1","author":"Singh","year":"2010","journal-title":"World J Diabetes"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1487","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.27.6.1487","article-title":"Use and abuse of HOMA modeling","volume":"27","author":"Wallace","year":"2004","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"2026101610021297000_B14","first-page":"e9973","article-title":"Bariatric surgery and type 2 diabetes mellitus: assessing factors leading to remission. 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