{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T18:45:13Z","timestamp":1792003513740,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"MJS Publishing, Medical Journals Sweden AB","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,13]],"date-time":"2024-09-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1726185600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["ActaO"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background and purpose:\u00a0The study\u2019s purpose was to develop and internally validate a prognostic survival model exploring baseline variables for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curve progression.Methods:\u00a0A longitudinal prognostic cohort analysis was performed on trial data (n = 135) including girls and boys, Cobb angle 25\u201340\u00b0, aged 9\u201317 years, remaining growth &gt; 1 year, and previously untreated. Prognostic outcome was defined as curve progression of Cobb angle of &gt; 6\u00b0 prior to skeletal maturity. 34 candidate prognostic variables were tested. Time-to-event was measured with 6-month intervals. Cox proportional hazards regression survival model (CoxPH) was used for model development and validation in comparison with machine learning models (66.6\/33.3 train\/test data set). The models were adjusted for treatment exposure.Results:\u00a0The final primary prognostic model included 127 patients, predicting progress with acceptable discriminative ability (concordance = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72\u20130.86). Significant prognostic risk factors were Risser stage of 0 (HR 4.6, CI 2.1\u201310.1, P &lt; 0.001), larger major curve Cobb angle (HRstandardized\u00a01.5, CI 1.1\u20132.0, P = 0.005), and higher score on patient-reported pictorial Spinal Appearance Questionnaire (pSAQ) (HRstandardized 1.4, CI 1.0\u20131.9, P = 0.04). Treatment exposure, entered as a covariate adjustment, contributed significantly to the final model (HR 3.1, CI 1.5\u20136.0, P = 0.001). Sensitivity analysis displayed that CoxPH maintained acceptable discriminative ability (AUC 0.79, CI 0.65\u20130.93) in comparison with machine learning algorithms.Conclusion:\u00a0The prognostic model (Risser stage, Cobb angle, pSAQ, and menarche) predicted curve progression of &gt; 6\u00b0 Cobb angle with acceptable discriminative ability. Adding patient report of the pSAQ may be of clinical importance for the prognosis of curve progression.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2340\/17453674.2024.41911","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,13]],"date-time":"2024-09-13T08:50:48Z","timestamp":1726217448000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Prognostic model development for risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a prospective cohort study of 127 patients"],"prefix":"10.2340","volume":"95","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3639-6380","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marlene","family":"Dufvenberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5228-738X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anastasios","family":"Charalampidis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elias","family":"Diarbakerli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Birgitta","family":"\u00d6berg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3094-6721","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hans","family":"Tropp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna Aspberg","family":"Ahl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daphne","family":"Wezenberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Henrik","family":"Hedevik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hans","family":"M\u00f6ller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8061-7163","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul","family":"Gerdhem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Allan","family":"Abbott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1183","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"75894","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Negrini S, Donzelli S, Aulisa A G, Czaprowski D, Schreiber S, de Mauroy J C, et al. 2016 SOSORT guidelines: orthopaedic and rehabilitation treatment of idiopathic scoliosis during growth. 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