{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,23]],"date-time":"2026-02-23T11:06:17Z","timestamp":1771844777962,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"MJS Publishing, Medical Journals Sweden AB","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,24]],"date-time":"2025-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740355200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["ActaO"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Purpose:\u00a0Our aim was to calculate rates of major fractures by fracture location in elderly Norwegians over the years 2010 to 2021 and thereby estimate the volume of fractures in this population by 2041.Methods:\u00a0We identified fractures in persons aged 65 years and over from the Norwegian Patient Registry. We summarized age- and sex-specific numbers of fractures and incidence rates by fracture location. Extrapolating adjusted incidence rates combined with population projections from Statistics Norway, we estimated the expected numbers of fracture cases for the following 20 years.Results:\u00a0The total number of major fractures rose from 22,581 in 2010 to 27,596 in 2021. While the number of hip fractures was relatively stable (8,164 to 8,194 over the period), there were substantial increases in the number of fractures in the upper extremities, spine and pelvis, and lower extremities. Annual changes in incidence rates adjusted for age and sex were 0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4\u20130.7), 1.2% (CI 0.9\u20131.4), 0.4% (CI 0.1\u20130.7), and \u20131.9% (CI \u20132.0 to \u20131.7) for upper extremity, spine and pelvis, lower extremity, and hip respectively. Extrapolating trends in incidence rates, we estimate a 64% (95% prediction interval 48\u201370) overall increase in the number of major fractures by 2041 compared with 2021, primarily due to the aging of the population.Conclusion:\u00a0Incidence rates of hip fractures decreased over the period, while rates of other major fractures increased. We can expect a substantial increase in the number of fractures over the coming years, primarily due to the expected aging of the population.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2340\/17453674.2024.42634","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,24]],"date-time":"2025-02-24T19:22:15Z","timestamp":1740424935000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Falling rates but projected rising numbers of fractures in elderly Norwegians: a study of fracture rates in the Norwegian patient registry from 2010 to 2021, extrapolated to 2041"],"prefix":"10.2340","volume":"96","author":[{"given":"J\u00f8rgen","family":"Andvig","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lars G","family":"Johnsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6762-9645","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sara M","family":"Nilsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gudrun W","family":"Bj\u00f8rnelv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andreas","family":"Asheim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1183","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"100449","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Borgstr\u00f6m F, Karlsson L, Orts\u00e4ter G, Norton N, Halbout P, Cooper C, et al. 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An estimate of the worldwide prevalence and disability associated with osteoporotic fractures. Osteoporos Int 2006; 17(12): 1726-33. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00198-006-0172-4.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-006-0172-4"},{"key":"100453","unstructured":"Saunes I S, Karanikolos M, Sagan A. Norway: health system review. Health Syst Transit 2020; 22(1): 1-163."},{"key":"100454","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bakken I J, Ariansen A M S, Knudsen G P, Johansen K I, Vollset S E. The Norwegian Patient Registry and the Norwegian Registry for Primary Health Care: research potential of two nationwide health-care registries. Scand J Public Health 2020; 48(1): 49-55. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/1403494819859737.","DOI":"10.1177\/1403494819859737"},{"key":"100455","unstructured":"World Health Organization. ICD-10: international statistical classification of diseases and related health problems: tenth revision 2nd ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2004."},{"key":"100456","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Omsland T K, Solberg L B, Bj\u00f8rnerem \u00c5, Borgen T T, Andreasen C, Wisl\u00f8ff T, et al. Validation of forearm fracture diagnoses in administrative patient registers. Arch Osteoporos 2023; 18(1): 111. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11657-023-01322-x.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11657-023-01322-x"},{"key":"100457","unstructured":"Thomas M J, T\u00f8mmer\u00e5s A M. Norway\u2019s 2022 national population projections. Available from: https:\/\/www.ssb.no\/en\/befolkning\/befolkningsframskrivinger\/artikler\/norways-2022-national-population-projections\/_\/attachment\/inline\/37d9dfef-1cd6-4390-b6ab-1601e21b32a8:1061870b3633187b8e861856f85e2dcc6638f666\/RAPP2022-28_nasjfram%20ENG.pdf"},{"key":"100458","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cooper C, Cole Z A, Holroyd C R, Earl S C, Harvey N C, Dennison E M, et al. Secular trends in the incidence of hip and other osteoporotic fractures. Osteoporos Int 2011; 22(5): 1277-88. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00198-011-1601-6.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-011-1601-6"},{"key":"100459","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andreasen C, Dahl C, Solberg L B, Borgen T T, Wisl\u00f8ff T, Gjertsen J-E, et al. Epidemiology of forearm fractures in women and men in Norway 2008\u20132019. Osteoporos Int 2023; 35(4): 625-33. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00198-023-06990-6.","DOI":"10.1007\/s00198-023-06990-6"},{"key":"100460","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S\u00f8gaard A J, Holvik K, Meyer H E, Tell G S, Gjesdal C G, Emaus N, et al. Continued decline in hip fracture incidence in Norway: a NOREPOS study. Osteoporos Int 2016; 27(7): 2217-22. 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