{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,4]],"date-time":"2026-05-04T09:07:12Z","timestamp":1777885632696,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2008,2,1]],"date-time":"2008-02-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1201824000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Percept Mot Skills"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Subjective estimates and associated confidence ratings for the solutions of some classic occupancy problems were studied in samples of 721 psychology undergraduates, 39 casino visitors, and 34 casino employees. On tasks varying the classic birthday problem, i.e., the probability P for any coincidence among N individuals sharing the same birthday, clear majorities of respondents markedly overestimated N, given P, and markedly underestimated P, given N. Respondents did notedly better on tasks varying the birthmate problem, i.e., P for the specific coincidence among N individuals of having a birthday today. Psychology students and women did better on both task types, but were less confident about their estimates than casino visitors or personnel and men. Several further person variables, such as indicators of topical knowledge and familiarity, were associated with better and more confident performance on birthday problems, but not on birthmate problems. Likewise, higher confidence ratings were related to subjective estimates that were closer to the solutions of birthday problems, but not of birthmate problems. Implications of and possible explanations for these findings, study limitations, directions for further inquiry, and the real-world relevance of ameliorating misconceptions of probability are discussed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,23]],"date-time":"2008-05-23T16:58:14Z","timestamp":1211561894000},"page":"91-103","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Birthday and Birthmate Problems: Misconceptions of Probability among Psychology Undergraduates and Casino Visitors and Personnel"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"106","author":[{"given":"Martin","family":"Voracek","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Vienna"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ulrich S.","family":"Tran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Vienna"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anton K.","family":"Formann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Vienna"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,2,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"bibr1-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/296176a0"},{"key":"bibr2-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177699813"},{"key":"bibr3-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/0025570X.1980.11976872"},{"key":"bibr4-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1427779"},{"key":"bibr5-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1141","DOI":"10.2307\/2318556","volume":"80","author":"Bloom D. M.","year":"1973","journal-title":"American Mathematical Monthly"},{"key":"bibr6-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3102\/10769986021001035"},{"key":"bibr7-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(89)90023-1"},{"key":"bibr8-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3616281"},{"key":"bibr9-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1991.10475772"},{"key":"bibr10-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"39","volume":"11","author":"delMas R. C.","year":"1989","journal-title":"Focus on Learning Problems in Mathematics"},{"key":"bibr11-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00276787","volume":"45","author":"Diaconis P.","year":"1997","journal-title":"Ekenntnis: An International Journal of Analytic Philosophy"},{"key":"bibr12-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1989.10478847"},{"key":"bibr13-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"The Cambridge dictionary of statistics","author":"Everitt B. S.","year":"1998"},{"key":"bibr14-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"402","volume-title":"Encyclopedia of statistical sciences","volume":"6","author":"Fang K-T.","year":"1985"},{"key":"bibr15-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"An introduction to probability theory and its applications","author":"Feller W.","year":"1950","edition":"3"},{"key":"bibr16-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Intuition in science and mathematics: An educational approach","author":"Fischbein E.","year":"1987"},{"key":"bibr17-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00380436"},{"key":"bibr18-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/749665"},{"key":"bibr19-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0166-218X(92)90177-C"},{"key":"bibr20-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3212893"},{"key":"bibr21-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Simple heuristics that make us smart","author":"Gigerenzer G.","year":"1999"},{"key":"bibr22-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Dictionary of mathematics","author":"Glenn J. A.","year":"1984"},{"key":"bibr23-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1970.10477177"},{"key":"bibr24-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00311112"},{"key":"bibr25-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-6377(86)90092-1"},{"key":"bibr26-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"4","volume":"4","author":"Jiang Z.","year":"1993","journal-title":"Mathematics Educator"},{"key":"bibr27-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5951\/MT.90.1.0020"},{"key":"bibr28-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/749150"},{"key":"bibr29-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00050700"},{"key":"bibr30-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"312","volume":"47","author":"Mase S.","year":"1993","journal-title":"American Statistician"},{"key":"bibr31-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9639.1998.tb00752.x"},{"key":"bibr32-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2466\/pms.1995.80.3c.1121"},{"key":"bibr33-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Statistics using ranks: A unified approach","author":"Meddis R.","year":"1984"},{"key":"bibr34-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5951\/MT.55.5.0322"},{"key":"bibr35-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Fifty challenging problems in probability with solutions","author":"Mosteller F.","year":"1965"},{"key":"bibr36-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Probability with statistical applications","author":"Mosteller F.","year":"1961"},{"key":"bibr37-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1977.10479214"},{"key":"bibr38-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1992.10475901"},{"key":"bibr39-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Innumeracy: Mathematical illiteracy and its consequences","author":"Paulos J. A.","year":"1988"},{"key":"bibr40-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Mathematical statistics and data analysis","author":"Rice J. A.","year":"1995","edition":"2"},{"key":"bibr41-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1976.10479179"},{"key":"bibr42-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-05746-9"},{"key":"bibr43-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4324\/9781410601247"},{"key":"bibr44-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/scientificamerican0698-95"},{"key":"bibr45-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"313","volume-title":"Selected papers of Richard von Mises","volume":"2","author":"von Mises R.","year":"1939"},{"key":"bibr46-pms.106.1.91-103","first-page":"183","volume-title":"Current psychological research in Austria: Proceedings of the 4th Scientific Conference of the Austrian Psychological Society (\u00d6GP)","author":"Voracek M.","year":"2001"},{"key":"bibr47-pms.106.1.91-103","volume-title":"Consilience: The unity of knowledge","author":"Wilson E. O.","year":"1999"},{"key":"bibr48-pms.106.1.91-103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03339376"}],"container-title":["Perceptual and Motor Skills"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,1]],"date-time":"2026-05-01T03:08:05Z","timestamp":1777604885000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2008,2]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2466\/pms.106.1.91-103","relation":{},"ISSN":["0031-5125","1558-688X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0031-5125","type":"print"},{"value":"1558-688X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2008,2]]}}}