{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T07:26:23Z","timestamp":1790753183310,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Journal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy (JOSPT)","issue":"1","content-domain":{"domain":["www.jospt.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Orthopaedic &amp; Sports Physical Therapy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p> Worldwide, the incidence of wrist fracture is increasing. There are currently no externally validated prognostic models to inform early decision making for these patients. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p> To develop and validate a prognostic model from a comprehensive range of candidate prognostic factors that can identify patients who are at risk of developing persistent pain following wrist or hand fracture. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p> We developed and validated a prognostic model using secondary data derived from a prospective cohort study (n = 715), with recruitment sites in 3 metropolitan hospitals in Sydney, Australia. The primary outcome was persistent pain 4 months following the injury. The current study used a backward stepwise regression analysis to develop the model in 2 hospitals (n = 408) and externally validate it in a third hospital (n = 307). To determine the accuracy of the model, we assessed calibration and discrimination in accordance with the PROGnosis RESearch Strategy framework. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p> Complete data were available for 95% of the cohort. Of 14 candidate variables, the final model contained 2 prognostic factors: patient age and pain intensity reported at initial presentation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.56, 0.69) in the development sample and 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.51, 0.70) in the validation sample. The model systematically overestimated risk (intercept, \u22121.13; slope, 0.73). <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p> We developed and externally validated a prognostic model to predict persistent pain 4 months after a wrist or hand fracture. Future studies are needed to assess whether the accuracy of this model can be improved by updating and validating it in local settings. <\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Level of Evidence<\/jats:title><jats:p> Prognosis, level 1b. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2019;49(1):28\u201335. 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