{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T16:06:34Z","timestamp":1792685194019,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Pasifika Medical Association Group","issue":"1608","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["NZMJ"],"abstract":"<jats:p>background: The prevalence of diabetes has been increasing in Aotearoa New Zealand by approximately 7% per year, and is three\ntimes higher among M\u0101ori and Pacific peoples than in Europeans. The depth of the diabetes epidemic, and the expansive breadth\nof services required for its management, elevate the need for high-quality evidence on the projected future burden of this complex\ndisease.\nmethods: In this manuscript we have projected the prevalence of diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined) out to 2040\u20132044 using\nage-period-cohort modelling. National-level data from central government on diabetes prevalence (Virtual Diabetes Register) were\nused to describe recent diabetes prevalence trends (2006\u20132019) by age group, calendar period and birth cohort, with these trends used\nto project diabetes prevalence out from 2020 to 2044.\nresults: Aotearoa New Zealand will experience a significant increase in the absolute volume of prevalent diabetes, rising by nearly\n90% to more than 500,000 by 2044. The age-standardised prevalence of diabetes will increase from around 3.9% of the population\n(268,248) to 5.0% overall (502,358). The prevalence and volume of diabetes diagnoses will increase most drastically for Pacific peoples,\nmost notably Pacific females for whom diabetes prevalence is projected to increase to 17% of the population by 2044.\nconclusions: The increases in the future burden of diabetes mellitus projected here will heighten pressure on health services. Immediate\naction is required to reduce new cases of diabetes and other obesity-related illnesses. Fiscal policies to prevent these diseases, coupled\nwith population-level interventions to more effectively manage and control diabetes, are effective tools for reducing disease burden.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.26635\/6965.6500","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]],"date-time":"2025-01-20T22:38:21Z","timestamp":1737412701000},"page":"94-106","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Projected increases in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Aotearoa New Zealand, 2020\u20132044"],"prefix":"10.26635","volume":"138","author":[{"given":"Andrea","family":"Teng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Stanley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeremy","family":"Krebs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher","family":"Jackson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan","family":"Koea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nina","family":"Scott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dianne","family":"Sika-Paotonu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeannine","family":"Stairmand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chunhuan","family":"Lao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ross","family":"Lawrenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Gurney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"11177","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]},"container-title":["New Zealand Medical Journal"],"original-title":[],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]],"date-time":"2025-01-20T22:38:27Z","timestamp":1737412707000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/nzmj.org.nz\/journal\/vol-138-no-1608\/projected-increases-in-the-prevalence-of-diabetes-mellitus-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-2020-2044"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1608","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.26635\/6965.6500","relation":{},"ISSN":["1175-8716"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1175-8716","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]}}}