{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,20]],"date-time":"2023-12-20T02:40:09Z","timestamp":1703040009107},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis."],"abstract":"<jats:p>A pesquisa estudou a sa\u00edda de modelos de mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas que melhor expressam a atua\u00e7\u00e3o dos V\u00f3rtices Cicl\u00f4nicos em Altos N\u00edveis (VCANs) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB). Os VCANs foram quantificados pela sua ocorr\u00eancia di\u00e1ria durante 5 anos (1995-1999), no per\u00edodo de outubro a mar\u00e7o. O objeto de estudo foram 13 modelos do CMIP5\/IPCC\/AR5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5\/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\/Fifth Assessment Report), comparados com os resultados do NCEP\/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction\/National Center for Atmospheric Research), por meio de m\u00e9todos estat\u00edsticos para escolha do modelo que melhor indica a presen\u00e7a dos VCANs no NEB.  A primeira an\u00e1lise comparativa foi feita atrav\u00e9s das correla\u00e7\u00f5es de Pearson, Kendall e Spearman, Raiz quadrada do erro quadr\u00e1tico m\u00e9dio, Raiz quadrada do erro quadr\u00e1tico m\u00e9dio normalizada e os \u00edndices de Efici\u00eancia e desempenho, Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE) e o \u00cdndice de Concord\u00e2ncia de Willmott (d). Em seguida foram selecionados os modelos de melhor desempenho e com signific\u00e2ncia estat\u00edstica para uma an\u00e1lise posterior de acertos e erros atrav\u00e9s dos \u00edndices: \u00cdndice de Propor\u00e7\u00e3o Correta (PC), \u00cdndice de Sucesso Cr\u00edtico (ISC), Probabilidade de Detec\u00e7\u00e3o (POD), Taxa de alarme Falso (TAF) e Taxa de Tend\u00eancia (VI\u00c9S). Para os testes estat\u00edsticos aplicados na primeira avalia\u00e7\u00e3o realizada o modelo MIROC4h foi o que apresentou os melhores \u00edndices seguido pelo MIROC-ESM e inmCM4, respectivamente. Al\u00e9m destes, ainda apresentaram correla\u00e7\u00e3o estat\u00edstica significante o MPI-ESM-LR,o MRI-CGCM3 e o CSIRO-MK3-6-0. A segunda an\u00e1lise tamb\u00e9m apresentou o MIROC4h com os melhores valores de PC, ISC e POD, excetuando-se o VI\u00c9S que apresentou o segundo melhor resultado e o TAF com o pior resultado em rela\u00e7\u00e3o aos outros 5 modelos. Dessa forma o MIROC4h apresentou-se como o mais indicado entre os modelos do CMIP5 para estudos de cen\u00e1rios presentes e futuros de VCANs no NEB.\u00a0\u00a0  A B S T R A C T  The research studied the output of climate change models that best express the actions of Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCV) in high levels in the Northeast Brazil (NEB).\u00a0The UTCV were quantified by a daily occurrence for 5 years (1995-1999) in the period from October to March.\u00a0The object of the study were 13 models from CMIP5\/IPCC\/AR5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 \/\u00a0Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u00a0\/\u00a0Fifth Assessment Report\u00a0), compared with results from the NCEP \/ NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction \/ National Center for Atmospheric Research) by means of statistical methods for choosing the model which best indicates the presence of UTCV in the NEB.\u00a0The first comparative analysis was performed using the Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlations, mean square error, normalized mean square error and efficiency and performance indices, Nash-Sutcliff (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE) and Index of Agreement of the Willmott (d).\u00a0Then models with better performance and statistical significance for further analysis of successes and mistakes through the indices were selected: Index Proportion Correct (PC), Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Trend Rate (BIAS).\u00a0For the statistical analyzes used in the first test performed MIROC4h model showed the best rates followed by MIROC-ESM and inmCM4 respectively.\u00a0In addition, further significant statistical correlation MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 and CSIRO-MK3-6-0.\u00a0The second analysis also showed the MIROC4h with the best values \u200b\u200bof PC, CSI and POD, except the BIAS that had the second best result and the FAR with the worst result in relation to the other five models considered in this phase.\u00a0Thus the MIROC4h introduced himself as the most suitable model of the CMIP5 for studies of the present and future scenarios of UTCV in the NEB\u00a0  \u00a0<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.26848\/rbgf.v7.5.p891-904","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,27]],"date-time":"2021-03-27T20:10:12Z","timestamp":1616875812000},"page":"891-904","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Avalia\u00e7\u00e3o de Modelos do CMIP5 que Melhor Expressam a Atua\u00e7\u00e3o dos V\u00f3rtices Cicl\u00f4nicos em Altos N\u00edveis (VCANS) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB) (Evaluation of the CMIP5 Models that Express the Best Performance of Vortice in High Levels (VCANS) in Northeast...)"],"prefix":"10.26848","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Ueliton","family":"Pinheiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Josemir Ara\u00fajo","family":"Neves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Rosane Rodrigues","family":"Chaves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"David","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Naurinete Costa","family":"Barreto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"11389","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,1,27]]},"container-title":["Revista Brasileira de Geografia F\u00edsica"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/periodicos.ufpe.br\/revistas\/index.php\/rbgfe\/article\/download\/233406\/27134","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/periodicos.ufpe.br\/revistas\/index.php\/rbgfe\/article\/download\/233406\/27134","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,20]],"date-time":"2023-12-20T02:16:59Z","timestamp":1703038619000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/periodicos.ufpe.br\/revistas\/index.php\/rbgfe\/article\/view\/233406"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,1,27]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,1,20]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.26848\/rbgf.v7.5.p891-904","relation":{},"ISSN":["1984-2295"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1984-2295","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,1,27]]}}}