{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,11]],"date-time":"2026-07-11T01:12:53Z","timestamp":1783732373168,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"American Mosquito Control Association","issue":"2","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Mosquito pool surveillance is a cornerstone of arbovirus risk assessment, yet traditional metrics such as the minimum infection rate (MIR) can understate infection probability and, as conventionally reported, do not provide uncertainty quantification that properly accounts for pooling. We analyzed 7 yr (2018\u20132024) of mosquito pool surveillance data using pooled maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with transformed Clopper\u2013Pearson confidence intervals to estimate per-mosquito infection probabilities. The dataset comprised 4,930 pools (246,500 mosquitoes) collected across 80 surveillance sites and tested for 6 arbovirus assay targets covering eastern equine encephalitis, St. Louis encephalitis, West Nile, chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses. Viral circulation was sparse (5 positive pools, 0.10% overall positivity), but the pooled-likelihood framework still produced interpretable infection-probability estimates together with conservative upper confidence bounds in zero-positive and sparse-positive weeks. Peak infection probabilities ranged from 0.678 per 1,000 mosquitoes for West Nile virus in August 2022 to 2.667 per 1,000 for chikungunya and Zika virus detections in October 2018. In this low-positivity setting, MIR, pooled MLE, and the Firth\/Burrows bias-reduced estimator were numerically close in the observed positive weeks, whereas the main practical gain came from interval estimates that made sampling uncertainty explicit. These results support moving from MIR-only summaries to a broader pooling-aware reporting framework in mosquito surveillance. Reporting both per-mosquito infection estimates and interval bounds places sparse detections and zero-positive weeks on a common operational scale and supports interpretation alongside other surveillance indicators.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.2987\/26-7286","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,7]],"date-time":"2026-06-07T01:31:09Z","timestamp":1780795869000},"page":"151-163","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["BEYOND MIR: POOLED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION FOR MOSQUITO POOL SURVEILLANCE"],"prefix":"10.2987","volume":"42","author":[{"given":"Alberto A.","family":"Condori","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Florida Gulf Coast University, 10501 FGCU Boulevard South, Fort Myers, FL 33965"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aaron M.","family":"Lloyd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lee County Mosquito Control District, 15191 Homestead Road, Lehigh Acres, FL 33971"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Milton","family":"Sterling","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lee County Mosquito Control District, 15191 Homestead Road, Lehigh Acres, FL 33971"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David F.","family":"Hoel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lee County Mosquito Control District, 15191 Homestead Road, Lehigh Acres, FL 33971"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1569","reference":[{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref01","series-title":"SIAM Rev","first-page":"65","article-title":"Julia: a fresh approach to numerical computing","volume":"59","author":"Bezanson","year":"2017","unstructured":"Bezanson J,\nEdelman A,\nKarpinski S,\nShah VB. 2017. Julia: a fresh approach to numerical computing. SIAM Rev 59:65\u201398."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref02","series-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat","first-page":"478","article-title":"Confidence intervals for the difference of two proportions estimated from pooled samples","volume":"13","author":"Biggerstaff","year":"2008","unstructured":"Biggerstaff BJ. 2008. Confidence intervals for the difference of two proportions estimated from pooled samples. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 13:478\u2013496."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref03","series-title":"Phytopathology","first-page":"363","article-title":"Improved estimation of pathogen transmission rates by group testing","volume":"77","author":"Burrows","year":"1987","unstructured":"Burrows PM. 1987. Improved estimation of pathogen transmission rates by group testing. Phytopathology 77:363\u2013365."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref04","article-title":"Guidelines for West Nile virus surveillance and control [Internet]","author":"CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention].","year":"2024","unstructured":"CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]. 2024. Guidelines for West Nile virus surveillance and control [Internet]. Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [accessed February 22, 2026]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/west-nile-virus\/php\/surveillance-and-control-guidelines\/index.html"},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref05","article-title":"Public health considerations for dengue [Internet]","author":"CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention].","year":"2026","unstructured":"CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]. 2026. Public health considerations for dengue [Internet]. Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [accessed March 20, 2026]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/dengue\/php\/public-health-considerations\/index.html"},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref06","series-title":"Biometrika","first-page":"404","article-title":"The use of confidence or fiducial limits illustrated in the case of the binomial","volume":"26","author":"Clopper","year":"1934","unstructured":"Clopper CJ,\nPearson ES. 1934. The use of confidence or fiducial limits illustrated in the case of the binomial. Biometrika 26:404\u2013413."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref07","series-title":"Aust N Z J Stat","first-page":"501","article-title":"Exact confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing with different group sizes","volume":"57","author":"Dres","year":"2015","unstructured":"Dres KA,\nHepworth G,\nWatson R. 2015. Exact confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing with different group sizes. Aust N Z J Stat 57:501\u2013516."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref08","series-title":"Med Vet Entomol","first-page":"200","article-title":"Assessment of arbovirus vector infection rates using variable size pooling","volume":"18","author":"Gu","year":"2004","unstructured":"Gu W,\nLampman R,\nNovak RJ. 2004. Assessment of arbovirus vector infection rates using variable size pooling. Med Vet Entomol 18:200\u2013204."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref09","series-title":"Biometrics","first-page":"1134","article-title":"Exact confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing","volume":"52","author":"Hepworth","year":"1996","unstructured":"Hepworth G. 1996. Exact confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing. Biometrics 52:1134\u20131146."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref10","series-title":"Aust N Z J Stat","first-page":"391","article-title":"Mid-P confidence intervals based on the likelihood ratio for proportions estimated by group testing","volume":"46","author":"Hepworth","year":"2004","unstructured":"Hepworth G .2004. Mid-P confidence intervals based on the likelihood ratio for proportions estimated by group testing. Aust N Z J Stat 46:391\u2013405."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref11","series-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat","first-page":"478","article-title":"Confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing with groups of unequal size","volume":"10","author":"Hepworth","year":"2005","unstructured":"Hepworth G. 2005. Confidence intervals for proportions estimated by group testing with groups of unequal size. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 10:478\u2013497."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref12","series-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat","first-page":"602","article-title":"Bias correction in estimating proportions by pooled testing","volume":"22","author":"Hepworth","year":"2017","unstructured":"Hepworth G,\nBiggerstaff BJ. 2017. Bias correction in estimating proportions by pooled testing. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 22:602\u2013614."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref13","series-title":"J Agric Biol Environ Stat","first-page":"90","article-title":"Bias correction in estimating proportions by imperfect pooled testing","volume":"26","author":"Hepworth","year":"2021","unstructured":"Hepworth G,\nBiggerstaff BJ. 2021. Bias correction in estimating proportions by imperfect pooled testing. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 26:90\u2013104."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref14","series-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat","first-page":"105","article-title":"Debiased estimation of proportions in group testing","volume":"58","author":"Hepworth","year":"2009","unstructured":"Hepworth G,\nWatson R. 2009. Debiased estimation of proportions in group testing. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 58:105\u2013121."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref15","series-title":"Florida Mosquito Control: The state of the mission as defined by mosquito controllers, regulators, and environmental managers","article-title":"Florida Coordinating Council on Mosquito Control","author":"Lloyd","year":"2018","unstructured":"Lloyd AM,\nConnelly CR,\nCarlson DB, eds. 2018. Florida Coordinating Council on Mosquito Control. Florida Mosquito Control: The state of the mission as defined by mosquito controllers, regulators, and environmental managers. Vero Beach, FL: Univ. of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref16","series-title":"Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis","first-page":"284","article-title":"Detection of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses using single-reaction multiplex real-time RT-PCR","volume":"92","author":"Mansuy","year":"2018","unstructured":"Mansuy J-M,\nLhomme S,\nCazabat M,\nPasquier C,\nMartin-Blondel G,\nIzopet J. 2018. Detection of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses using single-reaction multiplex real-time RT-PCR. Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis 92:284\u2013287."},{"key":"i1943-6270-42-2-151-ref17","article-title":"Dengue [Internet]","author":"WHO [World Health Organization","year":"2025","unstructured":"WHO [World Health Organization\n]. 2025. Dengue [Internet]. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization [accessed March 20, 2026]. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/dengue-and-severe-dengue"}],"container-title":["Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/jamca.kglmeridian.com\/view\/journals\/moco\/42\/2\/article-p151.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/jamca.kglmeridian.com\/downloadpdf\/journals\/moco\/42\/2\/article-p151.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/jamca.kglmeridian.com\/downloadpdf\/journals\/moco\/42\/2\/article-p151.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,11]],"date-time":"2026-07-11T00:30:53Z","timestamp":1783729853000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/jamca.kglmeridian.com\/view\/journals\/moco\/42\/2\/article-p151.xml"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2987\/26-7286","relation":{},"ISSN":["1943-6270","8756-971X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1943-6270","type":"electronic"},{"value":"8756-971X","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}}}