{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,7]],"date-time":"2026-11-07T02:25:09Z","timestamp":1794018309855,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Journal of Neurosurgery Publishing Group (JNSPG)","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>OBJECTIVE<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) face a higher prevalence of intracranial aneurysms. However, the risk factors for aneurysmal events\u2014particularly subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or aneurysm growth, morphological changes, or de novo formation\u2014remain poorly understood, leading to a lack of standardized policy of follow-up. This study aimed to identify predictors of such high-risk events and develop a risk prediction model to guide follow-up strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>METHODS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This retrospective cohort study was conducted at 2 ADPKD referral centers in Japan. A total of 1267 adult patients with ADPKD who underwent brain imaging between 2003 and 2024 at 2 Japanese referral centers were eligible, and 132 patients with untreated intracranial aneurysms and follow-up imaging were finally included. The primary outcome was the composite of aneurysm growth, morphological change, de novo formation, or rupture. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to pick up variants for prediction model. Internal validation was performed in a validation cohort of 638 patients and also via bootstrapping (n = 2000).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Multiple aneurysms (OR 5.56, p &lt; 0.001), hypertension (OR 3.60, p = 0.063), and family history of ADPKD (OR 2.24, p = 0.131) were chosen as the scoring variables, resulting in the 4-point scoring model. This model demonstrated good prediction both in derivation and validation cohort discrimination (apparent AUC = 0.724; optimism-corrected AUC = 0.726). The Kaplan-Meier curves divided by the risk groups showed clear stratification, and the 5-year incidence of the composite outcome were 0% (low risk), 12% (moderate risk), and 46% (high risk) in the validation cohort.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>CONCLUSIONS<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The authors developed an internally validated, easily applicable risk score for predicting aneurysm-related events in ADPKD patients. Generalization requires caution because of potential selection bias, and external validation is warranted.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3171\/2026.4.jns252347","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T00:01:11Z","timestamp":1790726471000},"page":"1-7","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Development of a prediction model for aneurysmal events to guide imaging surveillance in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease"],"prefix":"10.3171","author":[{"given":"Satoshi","family":"Miyamoto","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endovascular Neurosurgery, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo;"},{"name":"Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuhei","family":"Egashira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endovascular Neurosurgery, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuta","family":"Otomo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endovascular Neurosurgery, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daiichiro","family":"Ishigami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endovascular Neurosurgery, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Akinari","family":"Sekine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nephrology Center, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naoki","family":"Sawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nephrology Center, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tatsuya","family":"Suwabe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoshifumi","family":"Ubara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takehiko","family":"Wada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nephrology Center, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wataro","family":"Tsuruta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Endovascular Neurosurgery, Toranomon Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1754","reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"b1","series-title":"Nephrology (Carlton)","first-page":"245","article-title":"The screening, diagnosis, and management of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a national consensus statement from Taiwan","volume":"29","author":"Yen PW","year":"2024","unstructured":"Yen PW, Chen YA, Wang W,  The screening, diagnosis, and management of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: a national consensus statement from Taiwan. Nephrology (Carlton). 2024;29(5):245\u2013258. doi:10.1111\/nep.14287"},{"issue":"5","key":"b2","series-title":"Adv Kidney Dis Health","first-page":"429","article-title":"Vascular complications in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: perspectives, paradigms, and current state of play","volume":"30","author":"Gulati A","year":"2023","unstructured":"Gulati A, Watnick T. Vascular complications in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: perspectives, paradigms, and current state of play. Adv Kidney Dis Health. 2023;30(5):429\u2013439. doi:10.1053\/j.akdh.2023.09.004"},{"issue":"8","key":"b3","series-title":"Clin J Am Soc Nephrol","first-page":"1151","article-title":"Presymptomatic screening for intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease","volume":"14","author":"Sanchis IM","year":"2019","unstructured":"Sanchis IM, Shukoor S, Irazabal MV,  Presymptomatic screening for intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol. 2019;14(8):1151\u20131160. doi:10.2215\/CJN.14691218"},{"issue":"1","key":"b4","series-title":"Sci Rep","first-page":"18056","article-title":"Impact of kidney function and kidney volume on intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease","volume":"12","author":"Kataoka H","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kataoka H, Akagawa H, Yoshida R,  Impact of kidney function and kidney volume on intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):18056. doi:10.1038\/s41598-022-22884-9"},{"issue":"5","key":"b5","series-title":"Acta Neurochir (Wien)","first-page":"811","article-title":"Intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: prevalence, risk of rupture, and management. A systematic review","volume":"159","author":"Cagnazzo F","year":"2017","unstructured":"Cagnazzo F, Gambacciani C, Morganti R, Perrini P. Intracranial aneurysms in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: prevalence, risk of rupture, and management. A systematic review. Acta Neurochir (Wien). 2017;159(5):811\u2013821. doi:10.1007\/s00701-017-3142-z"},{"issue":"1","key":"b6","series-title":"Clin Neuroradiol","first-page":"69","article-title":"MR brain screening in ADPKD patients: to screen or not to screen?","volume":"32","author":"Capelli I","year":"2022","unstructured":"Capelli I, Zoli M, Righini M,  MR brain screening in ADPKD patients: to screen or not to screen? 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