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Based on the remote sensing, climate, land surface, and human data in 1990, 2000, and 2006, the ArcGIS software is used to quantify and rasterize the data of each factor. The forewarning model reveals the distribution of desertification degree in the three study periods on a scale of 30\u00d730\u200am and the results are used to conduct the correction and verification of model parameters. The development trend of desertification in the study area in 2015 is then forecasted under the conditions of \u201cintermittent water conveyance\u201d and \u201cno water conveyance\u201d respectively. Through the parameter correction, the accuracy of the simulated distribution of desertification degree can be more than 90%, showing a good performance of the model. The intermittent water conveyance plays a certain role in the reversal of desertification in the downstream of Tarim River, which is a necessary measure to prevent a complete desertification. However, the reversal effect is only confined to a limited extent along the river channel and cannot thoroughly change the current situation of desertification in the study area.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3233\/jifs-169624","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,6]],"date-time":"2018-07-06T12:01:21Z","timestamp":1530878481000},"page":"2721-2730","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Application of intelligent forewarning system for desertification in China"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Xianyong","family":"Meng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University (CAU), Beijing, P.R. 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