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By verifying whether there is convergence and spillover in financial development within a certain region and between regions, the stage of financial development in the region can be more accurately judged. This paper combines the actual needs of financial analysis to construct a financial risk spillover effect model based on ARMA-GARCH and fuzzy calculation. The model uses ARMA-GARCH and fuzzy algorithm to verify the financial multiple risk factors. Moreover, in order to verify the effect of the model, this paper uses case data analysis to study the model effect and combines mathematical statistics to process the model data. The research results show that the model constructed in this paper has a certain effect, and the ARMA-GARCH model is suitable for analysis and research on financial risk spillover effects. At the same time, when the statistical distribution is used to fit its error distribution, the fitting and prediction effect of the model is better.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3233\/jifs-189493","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,11]],"date-time":"2020-12-11T12:40:17Z","timestamp":1607690417000},"page":"6555-6566","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Simulation of financial risk spillover effect based on ARMA-GARCH and fuzzy calculation model"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"40","author":[{"given":"Chong","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China"},{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Huaibei Normal University, Huaibei, Anhui, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocab":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuesong","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Huaibei Normal University, Huaibei, Anhui, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocab":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/bap.2017.6"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep11206"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/02699931.2014.898611"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022109015000216"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2013.08.030"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ijcs.12219"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.11648\/j.ijfbr.20170305.12"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2016.1147491"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.2014.0109"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0308518X15609218"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2014.910678"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.evolhumbehav.2015.03.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10834-013-9362-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1183\/09031936.00193413"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/beq.2015.17"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_3_2_17_2","first-page":"331","article-title":"A form of multivariate Pareto distribution with applications to financial risk measurement, A","volume":"47","author":"Su J.","year":"2017","unstructured":"SuJ. and FurmanE., A form of multivariate Pareto distribution with applications to financial risk measurement, A, STIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA 47(1) (2017), 331\u2013357.","journal-title":"STIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2013.873546"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/japp.12148"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09540962.2016.1194080"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/20430795.2016.1204847"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.30525\/2256-0742\/2018-4-4-334-340"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20130456"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10479-018-3063-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20131314"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_3_2_26_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Riesgo Financiero: Evidencia Emp\u00edrica En Pymes Hoteleras (Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Empirical Evidence in SMEs)","volume":"3","author":"Gallardo Mill\u00e1n L.A.","year":"2015","unstructured":"Gallardo Mill\u00e1nL.A., OchoaE.A. and Estructura De CapitalY., Riesgo Financiero: Evidencia Emp\u00edrica En Pymes Hoteleras (Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Empirical Evidence in SMEs), Revista Global de Negocios 3(4) (2015), 1\u201310.","journal-title":"Revista Global de Negocios"}],"container-title":["Journal of Intelligent &amp; 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